A lovely day was had by all. Kingston St. Lawrence Vintage Base Ball Club loses 3-2 to a NY Selects team from Canton and Rochester NY in the final of the RMC tournament. RMC 1 lost to the Selects 7-6 in the first round while the KSL took RMC 2 by 17-3. I got a single.

What a run of attention getters. Taxes due. Election. Royal wedding. Osama killed. And what is most on your mind? The Royal Military College annual vintage base ball games, of course. This year, the Kingston St. Lawrence takes on RMC at the historic Cricket Fields in Kingston, site of actual pre-vintaged base ball in the 1870s. After all the stuff going around, there is nothing like the prospect of playing ball without a glove, the smell of the grass and the anticipation of a beer after. Bought a new bat. Sweet.

• - This guy could be Prime Minister in 40 years and still be considered young.
• - Interesting insights to the events around the killing of Bin Laden over at Castle Argghhh!.
• - Here comes the left!
• - Someone told me there was still a recession. I don't think that's really true anymore.
• - A beer law Canadians are too backward to want.
• - Has anyone noticed that the TSX has been collapsing since the Tories got a majority?

Gotta go. Going to take more of the day planning how to take this beard down to a long moustacheo. Don't know whey I am having to make up manual bullets. Maybe it's just Opera. Too lazy to check other browsers.

But the voters voted for her. Is that so wrong?

When he first heard rumours that Brosseau was a unilingual anglophone with no connection to the riding and no knowledge of the agriculture and forestry issues affecting its people, he urged caution, believing it to be the dirty tricks of another opposition party. When he found out the rumours were true, he said he was crushed. “It’s humiliating for us. Extremely humiliating,” he said. “We are not idiots. We’ve been lied to.” Simard said: “We’re checking person by person right now. We’ve put our lawyers on it. There may be people who will testify by affidavit. When we have that proof we’ll ask Elections Canada to take steps to call another election.”

I recall on Monday about 5:27 pm being in the polling booth trying to make an intelligent decision. I had caught bits of local debates on cable and read a few articles. I watched the national race primarily and made a call to vote strategically for a party I never voted for before. I knew what I was doing.

I actually know where Berthierville is. When I lived in the Upper Ottawa valley, we took Quebec highway 158 as part of our travels east and always made a stop there. Pretty rural lowland by the point where a tributary meets the St. Lawrence. You can take a ferry to the other side or head up the 40 to Quebec City to take the bridge. The Subway sandwich shop is handy. Look, if there was an issue with the paperwork, that should have been handled before the vote. If there is real fraud, fine - call the cops. But saying you don't like the place of residence, or the language or the job or the absence or anything else about the person you just voted in? That's your own fault. That's what campaigns are for. Apparently the Grits, the Tories and the Bloq or the populace as a whole missed the fact that she was on the ballot. Tough luck. You lost.

CBC News Network blew it at 9:00 to 9:04 this evening broadcasting results from Atlantic Canada early. Then it posted this. Brilliant.

I should say Fed Election 2001, Round One as there is no reason to think at the moment that this one will be the only one. But here are my bets:

Fairest expression of polls: C130, N100, L50, B25, G1, Ind2.

More likely, given split-o-rama: C160, N80, L40, B25, G1, Ind2.

Funniest, serves them right: C143, N77, L49, B37, Ind2.

There is a huge amount of leeway and possibility for Monday night. And, interesting to note, there has been a huge amount of good will in what turned out to be largely a campaign that avoided the depths of negativity that it might have reached. Looking forward to the results which will be discussed by me after 9 pm eastern time. I can't imagine checking the comments before then. I will have to make a judgment call about temporarily hiding, rather than deleting, any earlier posted Atlantic Canadian results that show up.

And vote, would you? People are being machine gunned in Libya for fighting for this right.

... give them the boot. Or even, at least, top them. As far as I am concerned, one word took Harper from 44 to 34%. Asbestos. I had no idea that former "[h]igh-ranking member of the Canadian government, Transportation Minister Chuck Strahl, suffers from an asbestos-related cancer." The word frames perfectly that Harper's Canada is only an economic formula. He knows no better. Hey, we're merchants of death but at least we are merchants!

• - Utterly inappropriate matching of song with car ad.
• - If this is true, it shows you how utterly craptastic the Tory war room has been.
• - What's a beer style.
• - The really important question about the Royals.
• - Tory support drops again on Friday. Weirdest election of my life? Gotta love the superfluous late support for Harper on the Prairies where he can make no real gains.

Gotta run. US meetings. More US meetings.

Apparently I was channeling Paul Wells on Monday. Like him, I am now amazed:

Just about all the trends have changed. Nanos now has the Conservative top-line national vote down to essentially where it was in 2008; other national polls put that vote lower. In Ontario, Nanos has the NDP vote above its 2008 level on an upward trend. Other polls I’ve seen put Conservative vote in that province lower than Nanos does. The NDP vote is entering territory where it starts to endanger Conservatives in some place, where before it mostly helped them by splitting the anti-Conservative vote with the Liberals.

Who is to blame? Harper's campaign advisors. As Ben frets, I noted that I have a lot of like for Harper but don't get his presentation of himself. Backing asbestos exports? As I wrote in January, Canada's role in this poison is disgusting, but as a campaign message it's insane. The 2010 black quilted Canada jacket? Yawn. Put on a hockey jersey, you dope. The "just happen to be jamming in the living room" stuff. The kids will flock to that CCR stuff. Sure they will.

As a result, so far Harper is failing, Iggy is really failing and Gilles is failing big big time. But it call can change. And it can all turn on three-way splits. Who am I gonna vote for?

Sure, I got 2 hours sleep after the four year old woofed the cookies in the night leading to laundry rather than sleepery but I just don't see anything other than a Tory majority of around 160 seats after next Monday, a few more than this prediction. I still think I may vote Grit for the first time in my life but that's because this may be the last time you may vote that way in a national election. They have gone from 33.5% to 26.5% since the writ was dropped - a shaking out of over 20 % of their support. It is just silly to have combined Liberal and NDP polling at almost 55% and expecting a Tory majority with about 38% of the vote. Look, things could get weird and a lot of three way splits might see any number of things happening but I do not see any great retraction of conservative support caused by horror of a Tory majority.

It is gratifying to see that the Bloq Quebecois is losing attention to the NDP but it that is understood in a cycle of Quebec elections it's a short term victory. Prime Minister Harper leading the Federalist cause in the next Quebec separation referendum is something of a nightmare scenario. He may be Velcro for some unknown reason in English Canada but, as a western fire waller at heart, he's hardly the voice for the nation - let alone that voice in French. One wonders even what the vague word "ethnic" will mean or play out as in that context.

So, blame the lack of sleep if you will but I see the land with a bluer hue come May 3rd. Take it as comfort or fair warning as you will.

Took a holiday week. Planned to do a lot of work and didn't. Rain. Cold. So I napped and watched baseball instead. Watched the newer Tron. But the universe is coming back into order as the Red Sox, while still in fifth will move up this weekend, passing other sluggish AL East teams. The election has not been sluggish with the Jack attack on the Grits. Nanos show the Tories down 5% form their campaign peak with 9 days to go. The vote could split very regionally leading to a confused Parliament. The Bloc could have fewer seats and more power. Or there could be a Harper majority... or King Jack! Who can say?

• Elections Canada warns against using Twitter on election night... then realizes it can do nothing about it.
• Parizeau and Harper are right. Canada is not a real country. In real country, this would be enough to bring down a government.
• I hope the Pirate Party takes on the rights to "KD" as a key plank in their platform. Probably makes up 87% of their caloric intake.
• NYT paywall? Try FreeNYTimes on Twitter.
• Harper may provoke a constitutional crisis which would be great fun and he would lose after Deb Grey mocks him and his party abandons him. You read it here first!
• What do you bet The Globe and Mail does not endorse Harper this time?
• I love the voter list allegations. Cry baby allegations to fuel the post election weeks when springtime just isn't enough.

That's it. Away with you. Go eat your chocolate eggs and your hams and your scalloped potato dishes.