Liberals closing in on Tories, Binns still favourite, poll says

The Liberal party has narrowed the gap and is now only seven percentage points away from the governing Conservatives, a new poll suggests. The Omnifacts Bristol Research poll, conducted exclusively for The Guardian, indicates Premier Pat Binns and his Progressive Conservative party will return to power, but the Tories are in the fight of their lives, particularly in Queens County.

There are 13 seats up for grabs in Queens County and the capital city of Charlottetown and the Liberals are now in a dead heat with the Tories — only two percentage points separate the two parties.

According to the poll of 500 Islanders conducted last week, the Conservatives have the support of 34 per cent of decided voters. The Liberals have the support of 27 per cent while the Island New Democrats are at a non-existent two per cent.

The undecided factor remains at a record high of 34 per cent.

When Islanders who have not completely decided are factored into the poll — those pollsters would describe as leaning — the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals starts to grow. The Conservatives then get the support of 53 per cent of Islanders, 10 per cent higher than the Liberals which are at 43 per cent.

The Liberals started the campaign 19 percentage points behind the Conservatives in a poll conducted in August by Corporate Research Associates.

Craig Wight, vice-president of research for Omnifacts Bristol Research, says if the Liberals are going to make a breakthrough, it is expected to happen in Charlottetown and rural Queens County.“That’s the highest Liberal showing in the three regions,” Wight said in an interview with The Guardian.“It’s very close there. A couple of percentage points can make a real difference.”

The county breakdowns show support for the Tories strongest in Kings County at 47 per cent and weakest in Prince County at 30 per cent. Support for the Tories in Queens County is at 33 per cent.The Liberals have the support of 31 per cent in Queens County.Liberal support is at 26 per cent in Kings County and 22 per cent in Prince County. While the Conservative party may have squandered its big lead, there is a lot of good news for the party in the poll.Pollsters say the party is in a position to be returned to power for its historic third term, that its leader remains by far the most popular for premier, and that the majority of Islanders expect the Tories to win the next election.About 56 per cent say they are prepared to give Binns another mandate. That compares to 27 per cent who say they are ready for a change.

Wight said while the Liberals have been able to narrow the gap, there is still no indication they have enough support to seriously challenge the Conservatives’ control on government. He said the Liberals should be able to pick up a handful of seats.“It shows a solid majority here for the Tories, I don’t think there is any doubt of that in these numbers. They are well ahead here.”

As for who Islanders want in the premier’s office, the margin is 2-1 in favour of Binns. The premier has the support of 51 per cent of Islanders. His highest level of support can be found in Kings County at 59 per cent while his lowest level of support is in Prince County at 44 per cent. Ghiz only has the support of 25 per cent of Islanders for premier. His support is virtually the same across all three counties. Island New Democrat Leader Gary Robichaud has only one per cent support.

The poll of 500 Islanders was conducted Sept. 18-20 and is considered accurate within plus or minus 4.5 per cent. Wight said the only poll which truly counts is the one taken on election day. He said all three parties will have to work hard to try and secure as much of the vote as possible in the five days that remain in the campaign.“The polling is interesting and people, of course, like to look and plan, but really the only numbers that matter will the ones Monday.”

Editor’s Note: The Guardian will have more exclusive data from the Omnifacts Bristol Research poll Wednesday including a look at what issues are on the minds of P.E.I. voters days before the Sept. 29 provincial general election.