It's sorta like the second round of the NHL playoffs now, a little less exciting and a little more about the game. Especially for the Republicans. No one is listening to Huckabee or Paul even though they are the only actual conservatives left in the race. What to do now?:
But backing from Mr. Giuliani and Mr. Schwarzenegger is not likely to help Mr. McCain where he may need it most, among social conservatives who have been suspicious of his breaks with the party on issues like immigration and his uneasy relationship with evangelical leaders...Mr. Romney’s advisers said they will be focused on trying to rally conservatives. "In a two-person race, I think as people say, do they want to vote for John McCain to be the nominee of the Republican Party or do they want to vote for me," Mr. Romney said Wednesday morning on Fox News, "who does his best to bring together the Republican coalition that Ronald Reagan built? I think I stand a good chance in that contest."That is an honest admission by Romney - something Ben might find to be rare - and yet points out the major flaw in being a sub-Reagan sort of politician on the right: conservatism is not homogeneous. Think about how a centre-right like McCain or a shifty sort of moderate/extremist like Romney now sifts and swishes their tea leaves for clues as to who would help them a s a Vice-Presidential candidate by their side. Is there much sense trying to placate a conservative "wing" of a party when it is splintered itself between religious big raft conservatives who accept Mormonism, those small raft evangelicals who that don't because they can't even stand the folk in the next county churches; those secular conservatives who listen to no-tax-big-spend Rush Limbaugh and treat him, in a bizarrely twist given the addled state of the investigated and bargained one, like a secular Billy Graham and those secular conservatives who reject the mob as they are bottom line business-means-business sorts?
Who does McCain reach out to if you plan to address all those needs? Fred was too lazy a candidate to be an attractive VP... and that is saying a lot. I say McCain should pick Rudy and tell (though actions, of course, never words as those are hard to take when you have principles) the conservatives they can't expect to act like a base when they have so little in common with each other, when they have no core values. He'll pick up enough of the conservative vote plus a bunch of independents elsewhere to make up for it if he is canny.
To summarize: split his own ranks, marginalize the flakes and win up the middle. Defies convention but, as is McCain's style, leaves him beholden to none.
Comments
Hans - January 31, 2008 9:58 am
I think that is a good analysis of a possible strategy for a "moderate" conservative like McCain. I mean, he really can't satisfy the socons and evangelicals anyway, right? So its kinda like calling their bluff. Its funny, in the area of uniting the various hard-core groups among the Republicans, I've heard it said that George W. was some kind of political genius and in that regard, its pretty hard to argue against. I don't know how Mitt can do it (other than Mormons are conservative and generally nice). But you're right, McCain can't do it and maybe shouldn't even try. Although ut is a huge gamble.....
Ben (The Tiger) - January 31, 2008 10:54 am
It's funny, Republicans like McCain, Giuliani, and Schwarzenegger are being told that they're not of the party.
It could just be that the conservative base feels like losing. Parties get suicidal sometimes.
Alan - January 31, 2008 11:18 am
That makes even more reason for McCain to create a new centre-right coalition. Divide the splintering schismists!
Ben (The Tiger) - January 31, 2008 12:27 pm
Nah. We're stuck with each other.
But this is an election for a centre-right moderate like McCain to win.
Alan - January 31, 2008 12:31 pm
"<i>...without Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and evangelical voters in 2008 John McCain does not have a chance against Hillary Clinton...</i>
THe above from your link. What I hope is that McCain breaks the literally unholy alliance of talk-radio and evangelicals. He can win with the latter without the former. In fact, that is the only way he wins.
Ben (The Tiger) - January 31, 2008 12:51 pm
Well... maybe there's something in it -- Dick Morris says that we didn't realize how liberal Florida Republicans were, and FredHead Stephen Bainbridge actually rather likes a McCain/Giuliani ticket more than the alternatives.
There's something stirring about a "two tough guys" ticket, and the two men obviously like and respect each other. And given that the job of a Veep has developed into "Attack-Dog-in-Chief", who better than the former Mayor of NYC?
Alan - January 31, 2008 3:47 pm
It's like I am seeing the future:<blockquote class="smalltext">McCain said Thursday he was honored to field endorsements from Schwarzenegger, Giuliani and officials from all points in the political spectrum. "You will see a flood of endorsements from across this great country from both liberals and conservatives," McCain said.</blockquote>No wonder talk-radio hates him. He's good for the country!
Ben (The Tiger) - January 31, 2008 5:16 pm
I'm moving towards hating talk radio.
You know why? We were fed the line by them that, whatever the problems with the current government, what matters is foreign policy & the national interest. (And look at those loony lefties!) Which is a fair enough point.
Now, by some near-miraculous alignment of stars, given the unpopularity of the current administration, that area of American foreign policy can be preserved and a tough, decent, widely respected <i><b>unifying</b></i> figure can be elected president -- someone who walks the walk instead of just talking the talk. (His whole family -- one son in Iraq, another at Annapolis.)
So what do these guys do? They declare jihad against him because he's a little too statist for their (and my) taste and he won't round up all the Mexicans, and do their level best to pick an empty suit who will say and do anything to get elected before breaking every promise whenever it suits him.
I truly do not understand these people. They're putting their immediate policy preferences ahead of the national interest in a time of war.
Jesus H. Christ.
I'd say that they deserve what they get, but the country doesn't deserve it.
Alan - January 31, 2008 5:25 pm
Well, don't hate good sports talk radio like WFAN 660 NY City or your own WBZ 1030. And review what I wrote in 2004 and maybe consider that what needs to occur is McCain establishing the start of a return to the centre as a location in politics and political discourse. McCain may have to take them on and discredit them but might be able to do so in alliance of decency with evangelicals.
Ben (The Tiger) - January 31, 2008 5:28 pm
That'd be a McCain-Huckabee ticket, then.
(Then you could see heads explode...)
Alan - January 31, 2008 5:33 pm
What if Huck backs McCain after a deal which is not based on the VP but another high position?
Ben (The Tiger) - January 31, 2008 5:40 pm
I'm sure Huckabee would -- he clearly loves McCain and hates Romney. But if you want a full-out alliance with the evangelicals, and get them to work heart and soul for it, you have to give something visible and undeniable. Full membership in the club, as it were.
Ben (The Tiger) - January 31, 2008 5:42 pm
That said, perhaps things are closer to over than we think...
Temujin - January 31, 2008 7:40 pm
The dreaded Bunny Chambers endorsement!
Has anyone considered starting a pool for total voter turnout? 47% would shock the hell outta me.
ry - February 1, 2008 10:30 pm
Gee, Al. It's like you just realized there's as much diversity in the Con side as on the Lib side. Wow? Are we grey backed monkeys in the jungle to you or something?
A McCain-GUiliani ticket is unviable. It doesn't reach out to the groups who make up the foot soldiers of campaining. No foot-soldiers(no ground game) no chance. Socio-cons would stay home, just like they did in '06. That's not a smart strategy at all. And, my god, that's like setting yourself up. Rudy is Mr. 9/11 24/7 and got, rightly, hammered for it from many directions over it. Remember, that down here in the Lower 48, the big issue is now Economy. GWOT is now rear of the paper. Rudy doesn't win in that kind of situation and he doesn't attract anyone either.
Romney is a flipflopper? Oh please. He does something centrist and gets hammered for it on CNN(Romney's healthcare plan sucks! Look at the way it has sorta-kinda-not taken care of people in Mass!((under our breath), even though all the candidates that're left are pushing that type of plan)). NR went with Romney. I knew they were. They were touting ROmney back in '06. Ohhhh, big surprise they went with the guy that K-Lo, managing editor of the online aspect of NR, fell in love with. Romeny may be the republican John Kerry, but, come on.
Huckabee isn't much good because, well, he pushes away the republican centrists. The whole 'Religious Right' thing scares them too, you know.
To be honest, the only person worth picking up is Thompson. Thompson is the one who drew of 'values voters' from Huckabee. He's got that draw without the 'Religious Right' baggage that Huckabee will(I can see what John Stewart and Colbert will say already). He competed for the same fringe votes as Ron Paul too. He may have been a lazy campaigner, but he's a better balance than anyone else out there.
And, yes, I see the same problems for the Dems too. The disaparate, rag-tag coalition of theirs(the mirror image of the disaparate and rag-tag coalition on the right) has seams that're stretching. Look at the whole 'gender vs. race' stuff. Their little interest group politics is about to blow up in their face too.
I make no predictions. THis is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay to complicated this time around.
(now, are there donuts in the penalty box this year? Not in the face, Al, not in the face!)
Alan - February 1, 2008 11:04 pm
<i>...Are we grey backed monkeys in the jungle to you or something...</i><p>I think you are about to learn that your "we" ain't much of an "us". You are holding on to the Limbaugh dream of gradations of purity down to the root. Just make sure you aren't shaken out with the fringery that's about to learn it's wishes are irrelevant in the center-right coalition that, come the fall, you'll be praying will win.