With scant hours left until the voting starts, I am considering one stat which has not been well played up:
40.8% Libs2004 polling predictions:
37.7% Cons/Alliance
8.5% NDP
10.2% Bloc
Greens 0.8%
Libs 31-34%The New Tories are grabbing 77% of the 2000 old Tory and Alliance vote. The Liberals are grabbing 78% of their former voters. The Bloc is at the same level but the NDP are running at 225% and the Greens at over 500% increases. If we do end up with a weak minority government with both the Tories and Liberals far from the 155 each need, we will be getting really what we are wanting.
CPC 29-30.5%
NDP 18-20%
Bloc 10-11%
Greens 4-6%
My predictions are now:
Lib115114
Con113112
BQ5554
NDP2827
Ind 1[Ed.: ...can't even friggin' count...]
Comments
Alan - June 27, 2004 8:33 pm
Interesting to see that the apparently well respected Election Prediction Project gave the Tories only 31 or 32 in Ontario as of last Thursday. Kingston may be surrounded by the blue but given the likelihood of a contraction to the Liberal benefit over the weekend by the profound principle of 'fraidy-cat-ness, this may shrink to 25. Nice to see that the Liberals may get the boot in Hamilton Centre.
SayNay? - June 29, 2004 1:11 am
Well, it looks like we've let the abuser back in the house, propped up by his drunken friend.