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Ben (The Tiger) -

The thing is, Labour _can't_ get Brown to step down.

He's their ace in the hole -- he has the right to meet parliament, as the sitting PM.

If he quits, it's all up in the air -- Cameron probably gets in ahead of the new Labour leader, and can start pulling Harper-esque "do you really want an election now?" stunts.

Alan -

Well, they can agree that he will step down after Parliament meets but point taken. If the deal is a coalition of Lib Lab in the next election, however, with a PR strategy as the prime plank and no running against each other (ie a real coalition) then the Tories are toast. Like that will happen.

Ben (The Tiger) -

I wouldn't say that, necessarily -- people find ways to vote for changes of government and changes of policy direction, and the current voting alignment is off from public opinion on the issues (which is much more like a 50/50 split, especially on European integration) -- but Cameron most certainly would be.

If they went to PR, the left wins the next two general elections at least.

Alan -

As with most anywhere, first past the post only protects the minority right.

Mark Greenan -

Alan, I think we could be more precise by saying, as with most anywhere, first-past-the-post allows a party that appeals to a minority of the population to hold all the power.

In my view, not a very democratic thing.

Alan -

We are saying the same thing as the right tends to be that minority. But you are right as there is really no majority other than "not right".

But it is democratic in the sense that it is known formula and also respects that the community is not a toggle switch. There are more than two views and parties in play so we never have a majority in anything really.

Mark Greenan -

Alan, what I was saying was that you could equally say that first-past-the-post could be advantageous to the minority left.

Indeed, the historical consensus on the adoption of PR in Western Europe is that it was brought in by the "bourgeois parties" to prevent the Communist left from achieving full parliamentary dominance with a small plurality of votes.

Ben (The Tiger) -

As with most twentieth century political innovations, it all comes back to the idea of house-breaking the socialists...

Alan -

But "minority left" is an oxymoron in the western world since, oh, 1890. "Minority tyrants" is a different point.

Socialists get housebroken by making Tories red. As they most are.

Ben (The Tiger) -

I was just on my way over to acknowledge your rightness.

Note: if Brown's stepping down, that means that talks between the Tories and the LibDems are on the rocks.

Will some Labour type remain in No. 10, once Brown has shepherded through a Queen's Speech? Signs point to yes.

Who should be new Tory leader? I'm for Boris.

Alan -

"... Tories and the LibDems are on the rocks..."

BINGO! It also says that this is how far Labour is willing to accomodate the LibDems. Maybe it is step one of a marriage.

Good point on this maybe being Cameron's doooooooooom. Someone else may also be leading the opposition benches.

Ben (The Tiger) -

Well, that or the talks are just about finished, with a draft agreement, and this was Brown's last Hail Mary.

But I think this is Cameron's doooooooooooooooooooom either way, as grassroots Tories will no doubt be horrified by what he is offering Clegg.

Ben (The Tiger) -

Final offer:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8673807.stm

Well, looks like we're fixiin' for a Coalition of the Losers.

Awesome.

Paul Garrard -

Ben, you got it right - we have a coalition of losers.

Post a Comment: UK 2010: Have The LibDems Already Broken A Promise?

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