We like our crises short and sharp. We like to hear about the big problem on the mid-morning news and have a handle on it by lunch the next day. We mock things that don't play out fast as somehow less worthy. But could it be that we have misjudged swine flu due to its lack of lickity-splitness?
On Friday, Dr. Daniel Jernigan, head of flu epidemiology for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said there had been 173 hospitalizations and 5 deaths reported to the agency. But he emphasized that most cases in the United States — possibly “upwards of 100,000” — were mild. In Japan, the number of swine flu cases soared over the weekend, and authorities closed more than 1,000 schools and kindergartens.
On Friday, coming back into Canada, I was asked if I had a fever or cough. I wondered if that was not all so, you know, about three weeks ago. But no: border services officers will "refer anyone showing symptoms of illness to a quarantine officer." We are off over the border today for a bit of Fort Ontario at Oswego, lunch at Rudy's and a bit of kid's softball shopping - pink batting helmets are go, if you didn't know that already. If we are quarantine due to a ticklish throat, I will let you know whenever they let us go.
Comments
Ben (The Tiger) - May 18, 2009 10:47 PM
Yes, we were too quick to scoff -- the flu pandemics, historically, have an early wave that is relatively harmless, then a second wave which kills.
Wasn't expecting the second wave till the fall, though..
Alan - May 18, 2009 10:47 PM
Oops. Sorry about the comments delay. I was off on the road and hadn't realized the error of my ways.
seanie - May 19, 2009 12:20 PM
But how does it compare to our normal flu season numbers? Close I would hazard a guess, which really just makes it a second flu season in one year. Not truly an apocalyptic event. More people died in car accidents last weekend.
Ben (The Tiger) - May 19, 2009 10:19 PM
Believe it's killed less thus far.
So then we may scoff.
Until that second wave comes to finish us all off... :p
Jay Currie - May 19, 2009 11:13 PM
Better too quick to scoff than cough.
Ben is right about the second wave. Spring 1918 was mild, Fall 1918 was fatal.
seanie - May 20, 2009 8:50 AM
However, although it has a slight edge on the regular flu's in terms of virulence, it is according to various sources, less then average in terms of lethality/nastiness. All in all, its not so bad as usual, just more likely to be transmitted to others and becomes full bore flu in a day or so less than the norm.
Also, even back so recently as 1969 when the last really biggish pandemic occurred, people weren't all that up on the hand washing and disease control and such. So, in the less developed nations its likely still a big deal, but here in the developed ones, more of an inconvenience than anything.