I am starting a category for Doom '09. There are no pending elections and no wars on the horizon and you can't depend on natural disasters so just exactly how screwed up the economy is seems to be the only story that is a safe bet to make it through the next eleven months. And this article on how internet ad revenue is collapsing not based on reduction of placements but re-evalation of the value is interesting:
Advertisers already seem to have a sense that this sliver of attention that they're getting is extremely miniscule, and they also know that it grows ever smaller as web users become more proficient at navigating the cacophony of links in order to focus their attention on precisely what they came to a page for (content). This being the case, it's entirely possible that cash-strapped advertisers will have exactly the same kind of "moment of clarity" that shopaholic consumers are reportedly having now that they've seen entire store inventories marked down 50 percent or more in pre-Christmas sales—that is, they may say to themselves, "We knew all along that this stuff was made in China for a tiny fraction of what it sells for here; we were nuts to pay so much in markup for it."
That, in case you didn't notice, is what could be called the death of the long tail. The long tail and other Web 2.0 principles required that the big consumer market play would fail because everything would become niche. But, as the lady who just closed her money losing candle shop at the mall would tell you, there is no money in niche. There is even less in a cacophony of niches. That being said, there is a mini-boom in beer blog advertising and from what I understand it is all about value.
Regardless, the promise that we can each have exactly what we want and that each will be unique in those wants in 2009 is as bad as the idea that we can all order groceries on-line was in 1999. Investment bankers chased but, just like credit default swap speculation and consumer credit wackiness, it was all a bubble. There never was a new long tail e-conomy any more than there was a world where you could use your credit as another income source. Amazon's business model does not replicate. Volume sales are king.
So what will Web 3.0 look like now?
Update: Pajama Media dies as well confirming that citizen journalism is always best left to the pros.
Comments
TRex - February 1, 2009 3:11 AM
Outstanding Fail PJM! Keep up the good work.
lance - February 1, 2009 11:49 AM
"citizen journalism is always best left to the pros."
Someone, please, tell Werner Patels!
Ben (The Tiger) - February 2, 2009 7:25 AM
Well... hey, this is how it works. You try your thing, you fail, and then you move on to the next thing...
Chris Taylor - February 2, 2009 8:50 AM
I don't know that I would herald the death of PJM as the failure of citizen journalism. Citizen journalism is fine and good, but to do it really well requires specific training, self-discipline and rigour, like citizen driving, citizen aviation, and citizen operating of heavy machinery. Yes, you can hire professionals to do all of that, but there is no reason why the average Joe should not, if he has the time, money, inclination and discipline to acquire the required skills.
PJM's death slide began almost immediately after its creation, because it was built on the Web 1.0 paradox of trying to monetize something people are used to getting for free. That's a dumb business model no matter what industry you're in. The other big fault was that the product was not too compelling. I can think of only one PJM author I'd pay money to read in a real publication, and that would be Richard Fernandez (Belmont Club). The rest are fluffy overheated political versions of People magazine.