M. Duceppe is simply stating something that Harper in his controlling way, doesn't like, because it is a very sharp little dagger of truth that could pop his baloon of a proposal. Sure, the incarcerated kids who commit murder at the age of 14 will stay in a youth detention centre, then be transferred at 18 to an adult one..however, instead of possibly being released well before the 10 year max mark, (which could prevent their even making it to the big boy big house) they are guaranteed to spend a few years under the tutilage of the elder criminals and yes, being pawns to the whims of sexual deviants. That aught to mess em up a bit..

The mind of a kid at 14, even one that commits murder, is still malleable, trainable, and capable of remorse, completely unlike someone who is 45 who kills. Stick them in a jail till they are 39 and guess what, you end up releasing someone who has spent 2/3 + of their life and all of their formative years, in jail... Good plan Steve.

I think that if we look at all the polls together we see that they are projecting a fairly predictable and ho hum election, as you have been arguing these past days, Alan.

In all polls, since the election call, the ranges of support are as follows:
Conservatives 35-41
Liberals 23-31
NDP 14-22
Bloc 6-9
Green 6-13

And regardless of the numbers, the order of the top three parties is consitently:
1. Conservative
2. Liberal
3. NDP

When you take the regional strength of the certain parties into account this translates to seat totals of:
Conservatives: 145-155
Liberals: 70-80
NDP: 30-40
Bloc: 44-50
Green: +/- 1 (dependent on Ms. May vs. McKay)

Unless something very dramatic happens to turn the campaing before Election Day, like a total knock-out in the debate or some kind of major unforseen issue grabbing people, I am very confident the results for all parties will be within this range.

Implications:

Harper: whether he wins a very large minority or a very small majority, he is going to govern about the same - on his not-very-principled-but-resonably-managed-vaguely-consevative-hold-on-to-power-at-all-costs kind of strategy.

Dion: out

The most interesting quesions in fact are:
1. Will May win her seat? (I think no, but not confident enough to bet on that)
2. What will Jack(!) and Gilles do post-election?

Heh heh.. WWJD.. What Will Jack Do?

You know, the more I look at the polls, the more i think that if the numbers are there, why would the three main non-con parties not approach the GG and ask to form a coallition. Honestly, they are all not so different that they could not do so, and not do it much more efficiently than a minority govt that bullies, blames and panders depending on their needs. if they won't consider such, well, they deserve to wallow in opposition.

Well stated Matthew.

Harper is disgracefully the pot calling the kettle black but he has shown he has zero compunction about flip-flopping in either style or content. Before this election I was ambivalent about the man, but I'm really starting to hate him. I agree with Sean's first post above 100%. Duceppe has always been one of the clearest communicators of our federal party leaders and is totally correct: Prison culture has developed to prey on young inmates. They become impressionable pawns doing violence and other gang-related dirty work or, if they can't handle that, they become housewives for older, meaner inmates. Scary, but true. Duceppe is right and we should not deliberately add to this phenomenon.

I'll go check out those polls now but I don't see the Bloc going into coalition with anyone, least of all Dion.

Sean,

1. Assuming Harper gets the most seats, he has the right, by convention, to form a government first, even if all the other parties are willing to form a coalition.
2. I do not see a Lib-NDP-Bloc coalition as at all likely, because:
a. Afghanistan: stay-in vs. abanodon immediately
b. Carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade
c. tax policy
d. Liberals would have to choose to either join a coalition with Jack and keep Dion, or dump Dion and stay in oppostion. I very much doubt they can both dump Dion and get into a coalition with an interim leader. First, because getting a coalition would require a strategic genius of toppling Harper quickly with ready made plans with the other parties, which I don't think the Libs are preped for. Secondly, because it would require both legitimating Dion and the NDP, which I think quite a few Liberals would have trouble with.

In all: Coalition is not going to happen.

Matthew: correct, yes, my bad.

Perhaps then, an effective coallition opposition. Agree ahead of time, en-masse to just work as one. No more abstaining, no delaying. Let Harper know up-front that they will not be bullied and if that means defeating him on confidence in the first few weeks, do so. If Harpie doesn like it, don't form a govt.

Granted, they are too chicken to do such a thing... and will be too broke come Oct.

Sean,
Indeed. Effective opposition - imagine!

You are right that they will likely not be well enough organized, and Harper has learned too well from Chretien about dividing an already divisive opposition.

My buddy Chiz is doing a good job.

Sean --

It certainly can be done. Heck, Harper organized something very similar when Martin first got a minority. (They were flying blind to a certain extent -- it was the first minority parliament in a quarter-century then. Now, we're all experienced.)

The only thing working against it is if the Liberals end up heading into a leadership race again. (Which would give Harper another year free and clear to govern as if he had a majority.)

Jack and Gilles went up the Hill...

Somebody stop me.

BTW, I've started calling the Conservative Party "Stephen & the Harpies." Like all bad '80s hair bands (or should that be bad '80s hair bands?)

Minority = Dion Dumped before Jan 31 in my books.

...Which I do not think will be a problem as we will already have potential leaders in place in parliament willing to do their best to ride the Tories hard until the convention. Nobody will want to be the namby pamby guy who sat on his hands until then and Jack will be out for blood as usual.

This might very well be the best solution for everyone...

NO bad pictures of Jack Layton? The moustache alone is enough to make me think of a friendly Big Brother, or does that make him a Little Brother?

As for Duceppe? Right about Harper but still a Bloc-head, I wouldn't buy his fleur-de-lys brand no matter how fresh it is.

One interesting element to all this is the combination of the bandwagon and ant-bandwagon effects. Jumping on the bandwagon, that is supporting the party seens as most likely to win is often worth a few points nationally and can be critical regionally where the possibility of being entirely shut out of government is too ugly to contemplate. (Those would be regions where the government is significant in people's lives and livelihoods - think Quebec and the Maritimes.)

The reverse bandwagon can cost a particular party a few points. Here the question is whether people want to vote for a loser. Dion pretty much owns the "loser" tag in this election. Out here in BC we are seeing the collapse of Liberal support in all but the hardest core ethnic ridings.

The bandwagon effect will generally help the CPC; however the anti-bandwagon is much more likely to benefit the NDP and the Greens. If a leftish person decides not to vote for the "loser" it does not make them terribly much more likely to vote CPC. Instead they are more likely to give the alternative parties a whirl. Now, in preactical terms, that might well mean the CPC - by holding its vote - will take a few marginals as the Liberal votes split off to the NDP and Greens.

(As to Dion's future - leadership races cost money. At the end of this election the Libs are likely to be 20-30 million dollars in debt. Dion could be around for a while.)

Oh, incidentally, Nanos has Harper up by fifteen. (CP 40, LP 25, NDP 19, BQ 9, GP 8)

Go figure.

Looks Familiar. But this took 6 weeks to swap around the other way:

Leger Marketing poll (2004-Apr-28):

Liberal 38%, Conservative 26%, NDP 17%, BQ 12%, Green 4%

aych tee tee pee:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:CombinedPollsVotes-39Cdnelxn.png

Ooops, Jacky says no to carbon tax - no way no how, no coalition there. Looks like another bunch of harper years to me. Sheesh when will those tar sands run out already. Not so fast lefty - we still gotta lotta trucks and ATVs to sell out here in oilberta.