If the polls are to be trusted, it has come down to an election no one really needed to get a result pretty much the same as we had before, all the action within the bookends being about how inept the leadership of the nation is. That is more than a bit sad. Issues which got no real hearing include:
- Afghanistan and what it means to Canada to be a nation at war;
- Health care and the failure of the government to achieve its promised goal of waiting time reduction from election 2006;
- How to tax pollutants - whether by capping and swapping or taxation and which makes more sense;
- Accountability and whether any party has a plan to make governance more open;
What else?
I think I changed my mind over the weekend. Maybe it was just getting away from blogs and into newspapers and dinner table talk for the weekend but it was not a good election. From a policy debate point of view it has been really quite a miserable election. And it shows as Ben's canvassing of the seat estimation projections explains. It seems the hopes that the Conservatives might add 30 seats to hit 155 were as wishful as any expecting a BQ collapse to the Federalists' benefit...leading me to wonder how long it will be to the next manufactured election we do not really want or need. That will be the next election pool I suspect.
Comments
David Janes - October 13, 2008 7:20 pm
Status Quo is a loss for Harper and Dion. It's a win for the Liberals. The Liberals can ditch Dion, bring in a stronger candidate, collapse the government during the "honeymoon" period and form a government. Also, for a while there it looked like the NDP was going to kick the feet out from under them; that not happening is a win for the Liberals. Jack Layton won't see another election as leader.
The NDP is going to win a seat in St. John's BTW: Jack Harris. I've actually known (i.e. been told by my parents) for a while but have been quite busy trying to earn $$ in case there's a recession and no $$ are to be had!
Alan - October 13, 2008 9:15 pm
I wonder about Jack. I'd say if he gets 50+ seats, he is in for another election at least.
The strangest thing about teflon Harper is if he gets a minority but fewer than 125 seats I think that will still be considered a victory - but really only because he is their only card. He has managed his government and party leadership to make sure he is the only card. When he decides to go - which theoretically could be Wednesday - the Conservatives are in a huge mess.
Alan - October 13, 2008 9:31 pm
Utterly inspiring:
"Strategic Counsel, in a national poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, had Stephen Harper's Conservatives at 33 per cent (down three points from their 2006 popular vote) and the Liberals at 28 per cent (down two points). The New Democrats were at 18 per cent, the same as their vote in 2006, and the Greens were at 11 per cent, up six points. The Bloc Québécois were at 10 (42 per cent in Quebec, unchanged from 2006)."
Ben (The Tiger) - October 14, 2008 12:48 am
Bah. English Canada seems in the end to be going about where I thought it would, at the start of the campaign. (i.e. marginally more seats for Harper, but not much.) Quebec is where I got it wrong -- I honestly thought that Harper could win thirty seats there and with them his majority.
Go figure.
Jay Currie - October 14, 2008 3:45 am
What a pointless mess.
I fear I am a bit more irritated than you are Alan and go on at length over at my place.
What really annoys me is that the CPC did not have the balls to actually contradict either the Liberals or the NDP on climate change and were too clueless to actually point out the relative health of the Canadian economy as, dare I say it, a good thing.
The sooner M. Dion and Harper are gone the better. You are, of course, right, that in the CPC there are no realistic alternatives at the moment. But that might change. Iggy might be looking for a job and when he is not pandering to the loony left of the soon to be bankrupt Liberal Party he is really quite sound on a number of issues.
sean - October 14, 2008 3:21 pm
Interesting, I've been geeting allo sorts of calls and emails from friends since friday, wondering what I was "doing" on Tuesday. Granted, in my usual way I played dumb and instead told them that I was visiting a facility in Prince Edward County with a consultant and lunching at a nice little place at Lake on the Mountain..maybe leaving work early to make up some overtime by shopping for new shoes..
Eventually, they all asked properly, how I was voting. I said "Liberal" because "I'm not crazy" (anymore). Every one of them said that they were doing so as well, and not voting Green or NDP as they suspected they would earlier in the campaign.
ALso, oddly, at 8:00 am on CBC news, I noted that a "friend" of Elizabeth Mays was quoted as saying that he was recommending all Greens vote Liberal. Never heard of the guy before and it sounded odd, but from all O can gather, its the unkept secret that word is out to Greens (and non-lifer) NDPers to stem Harper and vote Lib.
I give the Libs an extra 5% and a minority.
Alan - October 14, 2008 3:43 pm
I am not moved. I will be a Dipper against the Grits equally as against the Tories.
sean - October 14, 2008 3:52 pm
If felt positively sure that Harper would gain only another lame-duck minority, I might join you alan, but as there has been some flippy floppy polling and a big undecided %age, I cannot in my mind risk it.