Last night's by-elections are enough of a win for both the Grits and Tories that nothing really changes:
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River in Northern Saskatchewan was expected to be a close race. But it turned heavily toward the Conservatives after early results and Rob Clarke, an aboriginal who is a 17-year veteran of the RCMP, surged ahead of Joan Beatty, the former provincial New Democrat who was hand-picked by Mr. Dion. Bob Rae, meanwhile, sailed to an easy victory in the Liberal stronghold of Toronto Centre. (The NDP candidate finished second, but only three votes ahead of the Green candidate.) And Martha Hall Findlay thumped her rivals in the Toronto riding of Willowdale – a seat that went to the Progressive Conservatives during the Brian Mulroney years.The Liberals get at least two new strong voices on its side in the House of Commons but has shown weakness in the west, though the Saskatchewan riding was no one's to win. It was however, Dion's to lose and by dropping in his own candidate he may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.The Liberal grip on Vancouver-Quadra, a party stronghold for a quarter-century, loosened last night. Former B.C. environment minister Joyce Murray won the seat, but was only about 5 per cent ahead of Deborah Meredith, running for the Conservatives. It was a massive shift from the last federal election in 2006 when Stephen Owen had a 21-per-cent lead over his Tory rival.
The interesting thing will now be to watch Bob Rae. A gifted debater but he carries the curse of a man of two parties. Yet he faces a man of four across the aisle in the person of the Prime Minister - any history of the recent centre-left in Canada is only really remarkable for its parallel to the less recent history of the centre-right. It still be interesting to see if he is able to shore up some sort of solidity in the shadow cabinet or whether he will add to the factors pointing out the glaring - as in deer in the headlights - inappropriateness of Mr. Dion's unofficial interim role.
Verdict: no spring election.
Comments
David Janes - March 18, 2008 11:50 AM
I agree with your verdict. A good night for the CPC IMHO ... but the real story that seems to be missed by the papers & net ... is the excellent results the Greens got in Toronto. This speaks to a restructuring of the left over the next couple of years, with the NDP the likely loser.
sean liddle - March 18, 2008 11:59 AM
David has it right about the Greens. Interesting how the traditional leftist base is now mainly comprised of "green" left people as opposed to labour left who now seem unafraid to vote Liberal, Conservative, Green, whoever they choose.
Alan - March 18, 2008 12:14 PM
It would be nice if the 29% Liberal base, 12% NDP base and 8% Green base would get together on a coalition basis so that all they have to sway is 2% for a true majority.
David Janes - March 18, 2008 1:40 PM
Ah, there's a new take on Canadian politics: the left is shut out because of vote splitting ;-)
Alan - March 18, 2008 2:11 PM
Not so much shut out as a popular majority not in power.
sean liddle - March 18, 2008 2:34 PM
I wish Gilles Duceppe would drop the Quebec separatist stance, find an Ontario counterpart and vie for a new Upper and Lower Canada separatist confederacy. We could go by the miniker "The Bloc Party".
sean liddle - March 18, 2008 2:38 PM
moniker. WHERE IS my typing wand..
David Janes - March 18, 2008 3:09 PM
All hypotheticals Al. It's very rare, except in Saddam's Iraq and Alberta for some reason for elections to be anything but a bit of a gamble. I'm sure that there's some underlying psychological and mathematical reason for this. You're assuming that there's a broad overreaching "leftness" that reaches from the left end of Green to the right side of Liberal that doesn't exist. Lots of people are in parties mainly because of "the team" -- you've accused me of this in the past, and it certainly applies to a lot of commentators here on the other side of the coin (if there's any substantial policy in the Harper era that couldn't be transplanted to the Chretien one, or visa versa, I'd love to know). Also lots of people are Liberals because (in the words of one of my political friends) they're "joiners". Whether they'd like to remain joined when the crazies want to run the shop [*] remains another question when there's a fairly reasonable alternative.
[*] for example, Liberals are willing to make talk-the-talk when it comes green issues, such as talking about shutting down coal-fired plants and signing treaties, but they're not so quick to, like, walk-the-walk as doing these things would have actual unpleasant political outcomes.
David Janes - March 18, 2008 3:10 PM
Sorry, I lost the train of though there in beginning of the first para. What I meant is parties rebalance themselves to become competitive in general elections.
"antitrust erick"
Alan - March 18, 2008 3:42 PM
Yes, that is true but I think what I am suggesting is that in this era, the remaking may require some brokering of a consolidation.
Hans - March 18, 2008 3:45 PM
I wouldn't make too much of the Greens numbers. They are a convenient vote-parking party in any bi-election.
David Janes - March 18, 2008 3:55 PM
Or ... and I think you should ponder the possibilities Al ... that we are in the age of minorities, and that the Liberals have to go-European and start making coalitions to form governments! The interesting thing (from a politics-is-a-game point of view) is if all the red-lefties stick with the NDP, one could see green-CPC or green-Liberal alliances.
David Janes - March 18, 2008 3:58 PM
One could also see the CPC break apart into regional parties. Or a right-Liberal left-Conservative party form. The possibilities are endless...
sean liddle - March 18, 2008 4:54 PM
David has a point if one looks to the south.. How many REALLY close elections can they have before a third party with vision and not simple "we're different" attitude pops up and all of a sudden a two party system seems as silly to them as it seems to us. Right now, obama, clinton and mccain are pretty much tied in the polls. (as in A versus C or B versus C).