If we do end up having an election, the open secret in Canadian politics is that most people want things to remain exactly as they are. The worst thing that could happen to the Tories would be an early spike in the polls as that would inevitably be followed by a horrified reaction, akin to the fearful premonition of Saturday morning guilt over what one did Friday night. This campaign, they would do well by laying quiet in the reeds until ten days to go. Otherwise, according to the egghead quoted in the Globe, Harper's days could well be numbered:

...Dr. de Clercy does not predict that a second minority term for Mr. Harper would necessarily be smooth sailing. Much would depend, she said, on the Conservative Leader's ability to convince his party that he still has a chance to secure a majority government - and that the decisions he's made along the way haven't kept the majority out of reach.

"He has taken the Conservative Party in his own direction. He has made very clear choices about how he approached the media, how he communicates with the public, how he treats his own ministers," Dr. de Clercy said. "So his challenges will be, if he gets the same results, demonstrating that his way is the right way, that his plan will still bear fruit down the line and that it's just a matter of time."

The expectation of the conservative base is that significant change is due. However, what has changed in the greater world is the loss of neo-con sheen. To the south, there is little interest in another period of Rovian mismanagement. Even in Alberta, the populace is torn between being sick of being fleeced by the oil companies and losing out by not being fleeced by the oil companies. Given that, does Harper admit - as all have done before him - that the job of Prime Minister is no longer one of national leader so much as mere prudent administrator? Does he have to explain how his policy of not supporting infrastructure makes sense in light of crumbling infrastructure? Not very prudent as the Liberals are starting, oddly, to actual point out with some actual traction? What must he do?