BFPS. I knew it. How am I suppose to emotionally meet the day when I know we are suffering from BFPS:
a new survey finds the Stephen Harper Conservatives the first choice of 39 per cent of Canadians, 12 points ahead of Stéphane Dion's Liberals, at 27 per cent...The poll, conducted by The Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV News, shows the widest Conservative lead of a number of recent surveys. Last week, the firm Ipsos-Reid had it 36-29 for the Tories, while Harris-Decima reported a 35-33 Tory margin in its poll released yesterday.So yesterday, the Tories are within a whisker of being over thrown and today they are tempted to pull the trigger on the next election themselves. This is nuts. A spike like this in the good old days would, of course, meant a biased poll. With the closer ties between pollsters and journalism, this is less the case but you still get freakish abherrations. But which one is the freak?
Comments
David Janes - February 21, 2008 9:04 am
They weren't in a whisker of being overthrown yesterday, they're not in the position of routing the Liberals tomorrow. Why? 'Cause there's no election called for yesterday, today or tomorrow.
If politics is show business for ugly people, the polls are US Magazine for the ugly-people watchers.
Alan - February 21, 2008 10:01 am
You're grumpy this morning.
Ben (The Tiger) - February 21, 2008 10:24 am
I say it's just same old, same old.
Any time this government puts out a budget or a fiscal update, its numbers go up to 40% for a week or two, and then they fall to having a lead of 5% or being tied.
The next election is fluid -- the Liberals can win it, the Tories can win it with this sort of parliament, or they may win their majority in the end.
Conspiracy theorists might say that this pollster is close to the Tories, and this is a shot across Dion's bow, telling him not to go for an election. (But weren't the theorists also saying that Harper was trying to provoke an election?)
David Janes - February 21, 2008 10:36 am
I can no longer sleep. Generally up at 1:30, again at 3:30. Went to bed at 10:30 last night after some first-rate eclipse watching. I stand by what I said, though in retrospect plead guilty to overparsing.
Alan - February 21, 2008 10:51 am
You may have missed the implicit "supposedly"...