Gen X at 40

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Hans -

As you said, Dion must go now. The Coalition is dead. Opposition parties can still oppose without being part of a coalition. The Libs need to forget about the coalition, appoint Ken Dryden the interim leader, and go re-group. If they want to pursue a coalition, the support of the BQ should be tacit; they don't need to have an announcement about it, just wait for the vote and see what happens. Then go see if you have the confidence of the house for the next vote.

sean -

Without a chance at a coalition govt., Harper will just keep throwing things out as confidence motions until after a Lib Leadership review and the new leader gets his sea legs. He knows that they will not let an election happen. Therefore, he's just wasting time hoping the coalition will implode, then com Jan 27, he starts being a jerk again. He is a long term strategist.

Honestly, the coalition should have just shut up and prepared in secret, then defeated his motion next monday with a preprepared program and proposal for the GG to govern.

sean -

It is a problem with politicians nowadays in particular. They wish every one of their movements to be covered by Live TV and have their pre-prepared by others, scripted explanation ready at all times to deliver to the masses.

Ben (The Tiger) -

I'm sorry, I just can't help laughing at your "suicide by Betamax" line.

A few random people on an elevator here at work now think I am insane.

Alan -

Laugh away. Could you imagine if that happened in the US? How Leno and Letterman would milk it night after night without it ever going stale?

Ben (The Tiger) -

As a matter of political alignment, though, even if the Liberal Party died, the system would adapt to cover its voters.

The NDP would move rightwards, the CPC would move leftwards, and if they did not, another party would move into the gap (the Greens?).

This would take time -- an election cycle or two -- but there would not, could not, be a longterm disenfranchisement of the voters in that spot on the political spectrum. These things are self-correcting.

Paul of Kingston -

Assuminbg that the oppositions will be wise enoug hto use the next 7 weeks to their advatage too; I expect that the coalition may yet be reborn, without the fanfare of the first try and without Dion on the bridge.

It is the only way to turf Harper and avoid a too-soon election.

Ben (The Tiger) -

You know what you'll get? Harper majority.

Not a parliamentary majority -- a popular majority:

By a more than 2:1 margin, Canadians call for another election if the choice faced by the Governor-General were between inviting Stephane Dion to form a government and hold a fresh general election weeks after the most recent one. That is the key finding from a national representative poll completed December 4, 2008.

If an election were held today, Stephen Harper would win a large majority based on nation-wide support of 51% compared to 20% for the Liberals, 10% for the NDP, 6% for the Greens, and 8% for the Bloc. Harper would sweep seat-rich Ontario with 53% of the vote compared to 24% for the Liberals and 10% for the NDP in that province and would surpass Dion in Quebec with 32% of the vote compared to 19% for the Liberals and 35% for the Bloc.

Paul of Kingston -

Could it be that Canadians have developed a defacto awareness of the democratic process that is based on the US presidential system than our own? Glancing at the channel roster on my basic cable package I think I can see why.

Ben (The Tiger) -

I think it's more that Canadians want Harper to be PM.

They'd rather have him on a leash and kicked from time to time, but if it's a choice between him alone and the gang of three, they'll take him.

sean -

Oh well, who cares what the unwashed masses want on a daily fluctuating basis. They are for the most part media sheep. And out west? Meh.

If the GG agrees to a coalition, they'll have 18 months to turn the people around so long as they hold to the agreement. People will turn around quickly as soon ad Dion is bye bye an dthe economy rebounds. By then, Steve will be working elsewhere, probably berating university kids in Alberta.

Ben (The Tiger) -

Rule by cabal in Ottawa?

"How dare the two-thirds of the people who want an election over a coalition and the majority who would vote for the PM get their way!! Dammit all, we live in a democracy!!" :p

Alan -

I think it is fair to say that whatever happens that poll is not how it would play out - simply because they never do.

sean -

Ah if only our government made its decisions based on poll results.. sigh....

David Janes -

Fair enough ... the poll is not how it would play out ... but it is a fairly good indication of where the general level of pissedoffedness is aimed at.

Ben (The Tiger) -

Yes, I'd agree that it's pretty safe to assume that Stephen Harper is not going to win 230 seats in the next election.

But...

I am pretty sure that the parties who ignored those sorts of signals from the electorate are risking doing to themselves what the Progressive Conservatives did in the early 1990s.

Seanie -

But seriously, the masses, the majority of people who actually get off their lily white duffs and vote, they do not even know who they are voting for 100% until they hear/read/see the news of the day on their way out the door to the polls.

Give them a few months of a coalition that doesn't bicker, decent economic news, a REAL leader of a centrist party, and Steve still yapping away like an angry chihuahua and you get a minority Liberal Govt at the least.

David Janes -

And if I had a unicorn and some magic elves ...

sean -

News Flash.. Coalition will be dead by end of week.

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