If the hostilities in Georgia have now actually stopped - not a sure thing - what of the aftermath? To say the strike against South Ossetia was ill advised is an over statement but so was Russia's response...unless their statement really was "you are mine". So where are we:
...there is a growing belief in European capitals and in Washington that the return of Russia to a position of great power could mean a redrawing of the Eurasia map, with Europe and the United States giving up on attempts to integrate former Soviet republics in the Caucasus into the Western orbit, while battling with Russia to keep Eastern European countries like Poland and the Baltic states. And Russia’s resurgence could mean an end to already-dwindling American and European hopes of bringing Russia along eventually as an ally of the West. At best, Russia would never be trusted; at worst, it would be seen as an adversary.
Ahhh...the old enemy. Nothing like the recollection of nuclear fear of my youth to put the last seven and twenty years in perspective. The Bear. The Red Empire. To my mind, Russia - being something of a kleptocracy on one hand and a new oil power on the other - may not have the stuff that was behind the communist push for global domination. It could want to be a player but surely can't hope to lead to a one world government - nor would they want to.
So no new Soviet Union. But should we cut trade? Should they get the boot from the G8? Should they be cutout of co-operation with NATO and a few ambassadors cut out? To their defense, Georgia clearly did start this - or at least this phase of this. I would expect reprisals if anyone went anywhere and killed Russian or US soldiers...or Belgians for that matter. So is this really a single incident or part of a trend?
Comments
Hans - August 12, 2008 10:22 am
That quote you quote seems overly fearful to me. I think it is well recognized that Russia is letting go of its influence in the former "Soviet Bloc" of countries (cf. the re-unified Germany) but that everyone else has always been prepared to let them exert influence over the former non-Russian Soviet republics. In that sense, Russia is like the regional leader like USA is the regional leader in North America, Brazil in South America, South Africa in Southern Africa, Australia in Oceania, etc.. Are they heavy handed in Ossetia? Are they advancing in democratic reforms as much as one would hope? The Russians aren't perfect partners and they have their own interests. But I think it is good to have these regional heavy-weights as first responders. We should be able to work out the kinks of their role in the international community without resorting to Cold War hysteria. I remember those days too and this ain't it. I'm much more afraid of wackos in North Korea, Iran, etc..
sean - August 12, 2008 11:05 am
I thought about responding in my usual long winded and blathering way, but you know, Hans said it first, and said it correctly (with less blathering). I agree completely.
Hans - August 12, 2008 11:16 am
Thanks Sean. Its your turn next time! That'll save me any thinking. I'll second any blathering you choose to do. ;)
Ben (The Tiger) - August 12, 2008 4:44 pm
No Zbigs among you lot.
I'd say... yes, Russia was saying, "This is our neighbourhood. Don't you forget it."
Don't cut off trade.
Do start doing things with the G7 again and not with the G8.
Do stop these Russia-NATO council meetings, if that's how Russia is going to act.
***
Yes, this is part of a trend, but as long as the West now reaches out to other former Soviet republics -- Ukraine et al -- we'll be fine.
Chris Taylor - August 12, 2008 7:43 pm
I would use a few squadrons of stealthy F-22s to take out Putin, Medvedev, Saakashvili and Gurgenidze simultaneously, while making an ostentatious show of non-involvement.
sean - August 12, 2008 9:48 pm
What the heck, Now I feel like blathering...
Georgia is known in the former eastern bloc as one of the most corrupt former Soviet nations, with organized crime well established throughout all sectors of govt. and commerce. It was so before the breakup and it remains so. By painting themselves as a "fresh young democracy" they deflect from what the Russians and former Soviets had to deal with for years. Certainly, the Russians are not without problems or a history of a heavy handed method of dealing with dissent, but to view this as a white and black issue is wrong.
The South Ossentians want independence, most have Russian passports, the Russians are happy to house them. Georgians took the first military actions, they got slapped, hostilities have mostly ended. Looks like no-one from the outside need be involved at all.
A book link:
http://www.amazon.ca/Organised-Crime-Corruption-Georgia-Shelly/dp/0415368219
and another
http://www.traccc.cdn.ge/publications/index.html
Hans - August 13, 2008 11:37 am
There you go Sean! Never hold back!