He goes up and down.

Tends to hit 40% support right after budgets and mini-budgets, which is why I thought he'd have a decent shot at a majority on the campaign trail.

Still, he's made himself look particularly bad in this case, so it might have a little more staying power.

We'll see come February, when Dion may or mayn't take a crack at taking it down.

As long as it's within a hair or two of the margin of error, I'm not getting excited.

Just for giggles, what would your response have been had the Liberals dropped 6%?

I believe this is what I said, the last time the Tories hit 40.

<i>Just for giggles, what would your response have been had the Liberals dropped 6%?</i>

I have a very fatalistic Lovecraftian view of Liberal poll results. My first thought is that regardless of current polls, the Liberals are the Natural Governing Party and have the supernatural ability to win a majority at any time and place of their choosing. One day they will select Justin, Sacha or both as hereditary co-Emperors-for-Life and then the only escape will be to hope that they, like Cthulhu, devour you first.

My second thought is that I am going to wake up one morning and find that it's late 2003 and Mr. Dithers is still a highly regarded former Finance Minister who has finally gotten into the big chair.

Aaarrrghhhghrh! Even I wouldn't want Martin back. That is too scary.

And, yes, Ben - you are quite fair to yourself: statistics and polls are a mugs game. My interest here, as is usually with politics, is the day the veneer comes off and the accusations as to why the government fell begin. That days is just plain fun.

Oh, I figure that Harper's flaws are what they are -- he's the worst possible Conservative leader except, as the expression goes, for all the others we've seen on the Canadian political stage right now.

If he goes down, it'll be his fault, and in ways we have foreseen. But who knows how it'll be, and when.

I wonder why we are in this bad patch? I think one reason is that both the Grits and Tories have reduced the Federal presence to the point that it is often better to be a provincial-level cabinet minister than a Federal back bencher. Not to mention downloading to the municipalities giving plenty of useful meaty work to the politicians at the level I get to work with. Plus, as the responsibilities at the Federal level have lessened the ideology has become more strident. Provincially, I think there is little ideologically to choose from amongst any of the Premiers. Canadians like the middle road and those that work it diligently and quietly.

...And Chris invokes Cthulhu and thereby completely makes my week.. Personally I like to close my eyes and imagine the Harperites as the denizens of Innsmouth :)

Progress! I shall continue the kitten sacrifices. Watch the papers after the next full moon for an election call.