An excellent time for the US to declare victory and move on.

He already did that on the aircraft carrier.

Except for the moving on part.

I was reading the next justification for the invasion of Iran on the weekend: they're supporting the insurgency in Iraq, so they must be invaded to be able to win there.

Al, how much leeway am I going to be given here? I'm noticing a real echo chamber(with attendant poor reasoning and listening to conspiracy theorists(like Sy Hersh for example)) in the GenX40 Nation, but challenging said state of affairs isn't going to be nice or recieved well. Just want to know what the ground rules are, or if I'm even allowed (there's rules for Herr Flea and then there's the rules for me. That's the way real families work more times than not and I expect nothing different here.)

You are welcome to write but have failed to notice the special rules for you. You are the only one who has 1,000 word comments left up and who is not required to use HMTL links to sources in posts of three sentences or more. All I expect is that you will be considerate and rational - and not presume that others do not know about things or assuming that others are devotees of people you do not like. No one really puts that much thought into these things. But even then expect a cherry belly. <p>The Flea has no special rules so much as he knows he need not worry about his goth cred around here.

I knew there were different rules for me, Al. I just didn't know what they were. I wasn't complaining. I just wasnted to know where I could go and couldn't go so as to not get 2:00 or 5:00 or even game misconduct penalties. Whatever the rules are I can live with. Not complaining.

I think there's a serious problem with something along the lines of 'well, they aren't acting like a US puppet so that means the US is flip flopping and cynical'. Look, cheap shots are fun and funny; not serious analysis. It is a short term fix. Ha ha, Bush is getting his come uppance. Fine. Can we get on with trying to figure out how to find the minimums of the casualty and stability equations now, please?
It is also something necessary for Iraq to do in whatever time scale we're looking at. Having good relations with your beighbors, even if they are jackals, is in your best interests(unless you are prepared to do whatever it takes to stop the jackals, which Iraq nor the US is capable of at this point in time). That's not flip flopping or cynicism. That's accepting the political and military realities. Unsatisfying from a moral standpoint of course, but life is like that sometimes. I would've rather not backed Pinochet but if my only other choice was Allende? I'll live with the shame of backing Pinochet.
Same here. Syria is a bad customer. Iraq has no choice though. It either needs to have a functioning military able to interdict Syrian incursions/sponsored fighters, or make a deal that buys the same thing. They don't have that army yet. Going that route is futile and leads to a buttload of casualties. Again, I'll go with Pinochet here.

It's a long game. Set backs happen. (Battle of the Coral Sea. Battle of the Bulge. The Pusan Perimeter.) You play four quarters/three periods/two halves/9 innings and don't call the game 1/3 in. You take your lumps. You live with momentum changing jerseys. You stick to your goals and find a way to win despite the set backs.

It is a temporary equilibrium. THe momentum is spent or nearly so. Stabilizing Iraq will have further repurcussions though. Once they've tasted democracy do you think the people will give it up easily? Never seen a country that did. France didn't go quitely under the hand of Napolean. The Filippines chaffed and quaked under Marcos. There's may others. Even in Guatemala, where they've re-elected Ortega, they haven't ceeded what democracy, liberal-ish minded, that they have.

It is a blow though, and not something to make light of(beyond the long awaited joy you may have about seeing Bush emberassed.).

Iran. One of these days I'm going to write something for JoA and put it in his archives so I won't have to keep re-doing it. Sy Hersch wrote in (that's it I've had enough searching for his 2004 New Yorker article about how US drones and F-16s were violating Iranian airspace and how that prefaced an immenent US invasion of that country). But, if you google for yourself you'll see how that meme has stayed in the left side of the blogosphere ever since.
Geography lesson: What does Iran have on its eastern and western borders? Big ass mountains. Do tanks and armored formations do well in mountains? Do mountains favor the defender using hand held Anti-tank rockets like the RPG system? Yes, and at one time, just after the Yom Kippur war(seventies war between Israel and Egypt least ways), there was talk that even tanks were obsolete because of the revolution in infantry portable anti-tank munitions. TN Dupuy chronicled the argument in his books about QUalitative Judgement Method Analysis(QJMA)---that's just one place I know off hand you can find it, there's more. It's nearly impossible because of the terrain to go into Iran from Afghanistan and Iraq because of terrain. Not just my opinion, but the opinion of professionals at Proceedings as well(damn it, can't find that one online right now either. There's the pay subscription at USNI and I know there used to be a free link to it over at Free Republic because I used it in argumentation over at thedonovan.com some months ago. It is archived. I am on record with it. I'm not blowing smoke. Let me tear my apt apart and I'll give you issue and month, but that'll have to be after Thanksgiving and Boxing Day.). It isn't going to happen from there.
The best way, if by land, is to come out of Turkey down the coast, east of the western mountain range, thru a Kurdish section. There's a couple major airfields and a road that leads to the Persian Gulf coast. We're looking at logistical needs here. Turkey is not going to be down with that. They made the 4th ID leave before attacking Iraq and they're less likely to be ammenable to attacking a fellow Islamic country now.
That leaves an amphibious assault. Bloody. Doable, but bloody. And, if as everyone around here claims, the US military is spread thin in the land warfare dept who is going to provide the Marines to storm the beaches?

It isn't in the cards right now. A heavy raid is. Something like the F-111 raid against Libya. One of the more imaginative ideas I've heard, not sayin' where I heard it(but it isn't my imagination), is bombing raid backed by Rangers/SEAL teams hitting nuclear sites to really set things back. BUt that's short term. 10-15 year set back, with all kinds of hell as repurcussions.

As I, tried at least, pointed out with the Sy Hersh thing: this is a boogie man that gets trotted out every couple of months for the last two years. Sy Hersch just did another scarepose aparently about the 'Plan to Invade Iran'.
I've done better trying to slay this hydra. It's in archives at JoA and I think I did it once here. It isn't happening. There's no invasion of Iran in the works. It isn't feasable. If you're taking such talk seriously I think you're drinking some cool-aide and enjoying a 'ghost story' to enjoy feeling scared about 'those crazy republicans/neocons'.

The Flea? Goth? Who'd have thunk it? Tell me it isn't so.;)
My point was that Flea has a manner of saying equivalent, or nearly so, things in a more gooder way(but can also be meaner than me when he wants to) that go over much better and don't stick in peoples throats like fishbones. Sometimes it may be better if I just keep my fingers off my keyboard and let him handle it. I am somewhat self aware of my capabilities and tendencies---even if incomplete in that awareness.

You're the president of this glee club, Al. I asked your opinion on that score. That's all. Not complaining. Sure, I was a little miffed by gorthos' mentioning this 'boogie man'/invade Iran thing and wanted to put that one down, but I am trying not to rub people the wrong way in the process(Gordie Howe can learn to skate not only fast and with power, but precision too). I even made up with gr nicely the other day!

Okay, I actually found the issue, though it's cost me my break to do it. What I sacrifice for you guys. APril 2006 issue of Proceedings magazine, vol. 132/4/1238. 'Iran's Challenging Geography' by COL. John M. Collins.
Also available at free republic, without visuals, here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1619307/posts

You might want to scrounge a little to find a more acceptable site than Free Republic(I spend more time at The New Republic than the Free Republic).

Collins also has written quite extensively about the ME and seems to be somewhat of an expert on the matter, well, from a military perspective.
Back to stocking twinkies and soda and then staring out at CR 350 and the new walmart. Sigh.

That was much better, ry. I think we have to also remember that we perceive things about ourselves - good, bad, or tangential - as more exposed and trelling than we do about others. You do not so much have different rules but you do write in a different manner than most others. But you are also civil and if you have frustration sometimes it appears mostly self directed so that is fine with me. <p>But I think you have far better more substantive arguments to make compared to many others on the topics you bring to the table so feel free to post. Just remember the need to explain each point more fully than you might at Castle Argghhh. For the most part we are not experts yet have opinions which is natural. But I do not think we are bucking anyone whose views are more fully backed than ours on an ideological basis. If we are, please name names so we can have a show trial.

Um, considering how verbose I am over there are you sure you want me to go into more detail here? I wouldn't want to make you pay more for bandwidth.(And you yelled at me when I kinda/sorta/tried that about Baathism.;) )

You know, John says the same thing(knowledge of people, ideas, and movements that I refer to) about the audience at Argghhh!. The 'what the hell is he talking about' seems to be a universal. I guess it is just a not well peopled or well read discipline. Lots of people here are more intelligent than I. I'm no genius(not even a member of MENSA). I'm not even like one of the idiot-savante Hanson Brothers from slapshot. I just study.

You guys just need to read a little less about Cthulu and Beer.;)

I think you may be missing the opportunity to three-dimensionalize the discourse through linking more HTML-wise. Plus use quotations more. There may be no more (or less) substance to your comments but you will come off all eggheady. But I think you are more concerned that you ought and if I have caused that, do not worry.