In the middle of the night I heard a US talk show voice telling me the arrests were clear indication that there was a big problem with Canada. Interesting to note that the case involves three tonnes of ammonium nitrate which I wrote about way back here and which is instructive as a review of why a common fertilizer was designed to go boom.

Comments
Ben - June 3, 2006 12:23 pm
Ahh yes. If there are no roundups and arrests we're a haven that does nothing and if there is action by the authorities we cleary have a big problem. At least it was a talk show host and not a senator demanding the the border be shut down.
Alan - June 3, 2006 12:25 pm
I personally have disappointed most talk show hosts so I am used to it.
David Janes - June 3, 2006 12:33 pm
From the news just now, it looks like the police were on top of these clowns for quite a while and just seeing how far they would go.
Some guy on CBC was just talking about "root causes", which apparently has to do with "internation justice" and a lot of other buzzwords that probably mean quite a bit to his type of parson. No mention was made of "constant diet of hate propaganda paid for by foreign governments that teaches those outside the ummah are subhumans who deserve to die horribly".
Alan - June 3, 2006 12:58 pm
Is the CBC a hot bed of Baptist ministry???
Flea - June 3, 2006 2:27 pm
I had long suspected the CBC of Baptism. They have the worst rummage sales.
Flea - June 3, 2006 2:29 pm
The accused culprits are also most probably Baptists to a man.
Alan - June 3, 2006 2:38 pm
I had heard rumours of CBC parsonages but I never thought it would mean this.
David Janes - June 3, 2006 2:41 pm
I think you got it wrong Flea. The Globe and Mail is reporting it was Timothy McVeigh, or something like that.
Alan - June 3, 2006 2:43 pm
I never knew he was a parson, too. It's worse than the Masons.
Flea - June 3, 2006 3:05 pm
Well, Timothy McVeigh - like Hitler's dog - was a Baptist (and vegetarian).
Flea - June 3, 2006 3:12 pm
Hitler was from Mississauga too. True fact.
On a related note: I cannot believe I am reading this in The Star. I am having vapours.
<i>Grade 1
"Every religion other than Islam is false."
"Fill in the blanks with the appropriate words (Islam, hellfire): Every religion other than ______________ is false. Whoever dies outside of Islam enters ____________."</i>
Arthur - June 3, 2006 3:54 pm
I thought this was quite the statement:
For more detail on homegrown terrorist attacks (e.g. Madrid and London), see Benjamin and Simon's The Next Attack. It's interesting how much it resembles the open-source movement--people inspired by a common ideology can work on independent projects/attacks.
Now we all know that open-source == terrorists. What would David say, I wonder.
SayNay? - June 3, 2006 4:28 pm
I'm interested in finding out what their intended targets were - CUPE Headquarters? No, of course not, silly me. Let's see, ummh, more like something starting with "Beth" and ending in "Israel" probably...no doubt bouyed by [...]
ALan - June 3, 2006 5:16 pm
That last line is the stupidest thing I have ever seen you say so I deleted it. Has there been a terrorist attack in the West on a Jewsih target? I would have though with three tonnes of carrot food it would be the CN tower.<p>On a complete aside...how will they dismantle the CN Tower when it's lifecycle is done?
David Janes - June 3, 2006 5:42 pm
<ul>
<li>
1972:
Munich Massacre - 11 dead
<li>
1992:
Israeli Embassy attack in Buenos Aires - 29 dead, 242 wounded
<li>
1994:
Israeli Embassy Attack in London - 20 injured
</ul>
Not to mention two dead in an attack on the El Al counter in LAX, the Montreal school library that was torched a few years back, and many ongoing attacks in France against individuals. Still, in the context of terrorist attacks around the world (or even in the West) it's not predominating the list. One reason, of course, is Jews have figured out that they need to have excellent security around hard targets and have done a good job of implementing it.
David Janes - June 3, 2006 5:52 pm
The open source comparison doesn't bother me either way; it's an evolutionary strategy that's (in a value neutral sense) adapting to external pressures.
The biggest problems with being a terrorist in the open source model are:
<ul>
<li>
conspiracies with more than four people suck; people blab, don't keep to security protocols, etc.
<li>
thus, conspiracies are either starved for talent or vulnerable to outside infiltration
<li>
conspiracies, open source or not, also require:
<ul>
<li>
reasonably large sums of money, amounts normally that are out of reach of young indolent "action-oriented" sorts
<li>
hatred
</ul>
</ul>
It is my belief that that last point -- hatred -- is the one that needs to be tackled by Canada. When playing fill in the blanks for "I don't like way the world is working, therefore I should _____" ends up with "end my life to blowing up non-combatant strangers", well: that's an answer that has been taught and reinforced over time. I also believe that this hatred is sponsored and exported at a state level, which gives us a reasonable starting point for action.
Alan - June 3, 2006 6:01 pm
Yes, David - of course and I didn't mean to be glib about those events. I meant post 9/11, this terrorist group and its goals and habits. My point is these Pakistani/Afghani-related cells have not had a focus on Jewish targets.
David Janes - June 3, 2006 6:35 pm
Madrid, London, Bali ... and <strike>Toronto</strike> were very much <i>political</i> terror attacks; that is, they are designed to accomplish a very specific political goal i.e. isolate the US.
Alan - June 3, 2006 6:40 pm
Quite right. Plus New York. And I would suggest that this is because Al Queda considers itself a political terrorist organization even though it is radical violent politics arising from an interpretation of Islam and the political history of Islam. It is not one with a primary focus of war on Israel. It is also not a war of Islamic evangelism. So a more likely target in Toronto may have been a western icon like the CN Tower or Air Canada Centre as symbols of western values to either weaken Canadian resolve in Afghanistan or links with the US.
David Janes - June 3, 2006 7:33 pm
I had deleted a prev paragraph about 9/11. I'm not sure what the realistic political goal of 9/11 was; I considered it more "old school" -- they just want to blow shit up to "strike back" at the Man, I guess as part of an ongoing campaign to disengage the khafir from dar Islam.
In a lot of these things, it's good to understand what the enemy's motivation is, in that it will help you proactively prevent future attacks, but we should understand that the motivation isn't necessarily _rational_.
Flea - June 3, 2006 8:08 pm
"And I would suggest that this is because Al Queda considers itself a political terrorist organization even though it is radical violent politics arising from an interpretation of Islam and the political history of Islam. It is not one with a primary focus of war on Israel."
Indeed. Osama bin Laden's many pronouncements have highlighted al Andalus despite most people not being able to locate the place on the map and pretty much ignored Israel/Palestine despite this being the only lens through which too many people here view the problem. Equally, al Qaeda statements have not been terribly concerned about Canadian participation/non-participation in the ongoing libertation of Iraq whereas Australia's intervention in East Timor - long time cause of the campus left in Canada and elsewhere - was specifically cited as a reason for jihad against "the West".
That said, the Kiever Synagogue in Kensington Market was torched a couple years ago - resulting in the loss of much of the library brought to Canada from Ukraine - with hardly a mention in the press. I think this is the result of an intentional understanding in amongst our media, security and political establishments in an effort to prevent such acts from gaining the notoriety for which they hope. But I would be very careful in being glib about the special hatred Islamists have for Jews.
David Janes - June 3, 2006 8:18 pm
Although I agree with your points, OBL has always struck me as a Hilteresque personality, that is, an mediocre individual with an 21 Charisma. His issues strangely follow Michael Moore's, though I assume this is a tone deaf way of trying to exploit divisions in thw West.
Flea - June 3, 2006 8:18 pm
The somewhat redacted opinions of the Integrated National Security Assessment Centre.
Flea - June 3, 2006 8:19 pm
David: That is the best use of a D&D analogy I have ever seen deployed in this sort of discussion.
Flea - June 3, 2006 8:36 pm
Still stuck on OBL. A small disagreement vis-a-vis the 21 Charisma. I am inclined to think the man has a mediocre Charisma with some sort of wicked multiplier for NPCs with Lawful Evil alignment. And I expect he could be readily turned with holy water.
Arthur - June 3, 2006 8:38 pm
OBL has always struck me as a Hilteresque personality, that is, an mediocre individual with an 21 Charisma.
This is exactly why the good guys were able to catch him early in the War on Terror.
David Janes - June 3, 2006 8:59 pm
Thanks Nick! If you want a really good baddy, read Fallaci talking about Khomeini -- that guy was LE and 17, 18s or higher across the board.
David Janes - June 3, 2006 9:03 pm
Oh yes, admin note, and I know this is not my blog etc even though I write far more here than I do on my own, but why not go back to the 7pt text for redacting out-of-bounds commentary?
David Janes - June 3, 2006 9:04 pm
For those who are into it: my campaign notes from the 80s.
David Janes - June 3, 2006 9:07 pm
Especially funny -- I'm still laughing 23 years later.
Alan - June 3, 2006 9:18 pm
On the admin question, there are a couple of folk who add little and indeed sidetrack into the slanderous areas I have no interest in publishing so I hide their comments. There was a long period of warnings but that time of the 7 pt font is long ago.
Flea - June 3, 2006 9:35 pm
I had that Fallici piece and trust her judgement. I think you are right about Khomeini's stats. I would also be willing to bet his Hand and Eye could be deployed as relics (and woe to the hobbit, err, <i>halfling</i> thief thinking to do so).
Flea - June 3, 2006 9:42 pm
I am now wondering if OBL is actually CE. Definitely LE for Khomeini.
Alan - June 3, 2006 9:46 pm
I played D+D once with my buddies. After gaining a small amount of power - while travelling a mountain path - I turned on them and slew them all due to some very lucky dice play. Then I suggested it was bar time. At the tav, one poor sap kept on the whole evening about how it took him six months to get where he was in the game. He sure fell off the cliff well.
David Janes - June 4, 2006 6:14 am
Have you ever read The Head of Vecna? Maybe NE for Khomeini?
Flea - June 4, 2006 8:41 am
I had forgotten the Head of Vecna. Classic.
Flea - June 4, 2006 8:45 am
I hesitate to point out this Vecnagra ad.
Alan - June 4, 2006 8:48 am
Ha ha. Except those losers did not employ the ancient Welsh self-defence technique of Lap Goch in which the persons employing Lap Goch attacks before the thought of attacking the person employing Lap Goch ever comes into the mind of the person attacked.
Mike - June 4, 2006 10:31 am
I was often a CN Kender 'with evil tendencies'.
Alan - June 4, 2006 10:32 am
<i>That</i> goes without saying...
Flea - June 4, 2006 3:32 pm
Alan: That's <i>Llap</i> Goch you tartan-wearing semi-barbarian.
Mike: Hmm. My most recent amorous interest exclusively played Kenders. She was most illusive about the subject (before doing a quick fade herself). If I was to play a non-canonical character class it would be a Summoner (from <i>White Dwarf</i> #27).
Flea - June 4, 2006 5:08 pm
I cannot believe that did not get a rise out of anybody. Going to sulk now.
Alan - June 4, 2006 5:21 pm
I can't help you. My D+D me was limited to that murderous evening.
Flea - June 4, 2006 6:57 pm
Vexed again!
Alan - June 4, 2006 10:29 pm
Back to the topic...or at least the original topic, what about this in the Star:<blockquote class="smalltext">Thompson said the quantity of fertilizer <b>that was seized by authorities</b> would have been perfect for an Al Qaeda-style attack, with multiple bombs set off within minutes of each other.</blockquote>And this in the Syracuse Post-Standard from an AP story:<blockquote class="smalltext"><b>The Royal Canadian Mounted Police itself delivered</b> three tons of potential bomb-making material to a group that authorities said wanted to mount a string of attacks inspired by al-Qaida, according to a news report Sunday. The Toronto Star said investigators delivered the ammonium nitrate to a group of Muslim Canadians, then moved in quickly on what officials call a suspected homegrown terror ring.</blockquote>Because the fertilizer is what it is, is there any volume in Canada that is not watched by the authorities?
Flea - June 5, 2006 12:10 am
"Because the fertilizer is what it is, is there any volume in Canada that is not watched by the authorities?"
My impression is that close to none of it is watched by the authorities. I believe they prefer to rely on vendors to report peculiar purchases. I could be mistaken about this or, if not mistaken, it is possible the authorities do monitor this material but prefer to give the impression they do not do so directly.
David Janes - June 5, 2006 6:26 am
I don't want to help out with plotting or anything, but:
* 3 tons = 2700kg
* 2700kg / 17 conspirators = 158 kg/conspirator
* conspirators pick up 2kg fertilizer/trip
* 79 trips/conspirator
I.e. the conspiracy could probably pick up all the fertilizer it needs in about 1.5 years probably without ever being noticed. If they used a more realistic amt. of fertilizer, they could cut this in third to about half a year.
Just heard on CBC (when they found some time out from telling us about the nasty racist Canadian backlash) that one of the accused said Canada went to Afghanistan to "rape muslim women". So here's your profile: paranoid and stupid.
David Janes - June 5, 2006 6:26 am
... and brutal. Can't forget that!
Alan - June 5, 2006 8:16 am
I am not questioning their nastiness or dumbness. I am just unclear how you seize something you yourself brought into a situation - if that is what happened. <p>Oddly, I just heard a very bad teen angst haiku read on the CBC, apparently written by one of the arrested and found in his possessions. I don't know what that means but I think it must be important.
Flea - June 5, 2006 8:16 am
And Baptist!
Alan - June 5, 2006 8:18 am
Do Baptists write teen angst haiku? I know a baptist joke, though: why do Baptists shun verticle intercourse? Leads to dancing. A childhood in the Annapolis Valley was enriched with Bappy funny.
Alan - June 5, 2006 8:25 am
Not jumping on the level of CBC journalism this morning but this strikes me as a bit thick:<blockquote class="smalltext">Police aren't saying what led them to arrest 17 southern Ontario people in what looks to be Canada's biggest bomb plot. There have been plenty of leaks from sources, but not many of them have been publicly confirmed at this point. Some sources say Canadian anti-terrorist forces eavesdropped on extremist internet sites as a massive bomb attack was planned.</blockquote>Eavesdropping! <br>"Wickedly brilliant tactic, Cpl Reggie! "<br>"Thank you, Lt. Jones, but Smithers thought of it."<br>"He is quite keen on the internet."<br>"Ha, Ha - not too keen I hope Smithers."<br>"No sir, not at all. I use it to follow hockey."
Flea - June 5, 2006 11:26 am
Eavesdropping! I can feel my civil liberties withering away in this pervasive culture of fear.
/asshat
Alan - June 5, 2006 2:21 pm
Just parking this comment:<blockquote class="smalltext">“Obviously anybody who is collecting three tonnes of ammonium nitrate isn't doing it for purposes of fertilizing their gardens. There was very serious intent here,” he told CTV's Question Period yesterday.</a>
gr - June 5, 2006 2:56 pm
Its Alan's blog, so seven point type is OK for him.
(Tee hee!) To quote Flea: 'you tartan-wearing semi-barbarian'
ooooh, that's low.
Flea - June 5, 2006 4:23 pm
Well, he started it by raising my partial Welsh ancestry. Generally speaking it is over-ruled by the English majority of me but, being cunning, it strikes without warning.
Alan - June 5, 2006 4:42 pm
...before the need to think of things Welsh has even occured to me.
gr - June 5, 2006 5:11 pm
I'm part Welsh too, Flea, and you won't catch ME wearing a kilt anytime soon.
Flea - June 5, 2006 5:55 pm
Or pants! Blinding speed obviates the need for pants!
The Remittance Man - June 18, 2006 12:21 pm
I must take issue with you and your conspiracy theories about the Eisenhower Administration's support for the fertilizer industry.
ANFO is a bloody useless military explosive. Bulky for its power and low in "brissance", that is the shattering force, as opposed to "heave" which is related to the amount of gas produced by detonation. I doubt you will find many military applications where this combination of qualities is useful compared to the specifically designed explosives available to the men in green (TNT, C4 etc). No civilian demolition company would use ANFO either for precisely the same reasons.
Terrorists only use ANFO simply because it can be made in your back garden in a rented cement mixer. Fortunately for the rest of us, ANFO is damned hard to detonate; in fact in my experience, to make a decent sized charge go off you need a primer containing at least a kilo of molecular explosive (TNT or somesuch) and this is usually very difficult for bad people to get hold of.
As a comparison, the effect caused by the three tons of ANFO used in the Oklahoma outrage could have been acheived by about one tenth the amount of commercial demolition explosive or less. The downside would be that to place those charges would take a couple of days and TNT cannot be bought over the counter like fertilizer and old engine oil.
If any vested interest were to lobby for government support of the fertilizer makers it would be the mining industry. ANFO and its derivatives are cheap, easy to manufacture and contain the right proportions of brissance and gas production to create nice loose muckpiles from solid rock.
RM
ps before you set the Feds on my butt, I am a mining engineer with many years of experience using explosives, and nothing I've written here isn't freely available on the Internet.
David Janes - June 18, 2006 12:41 pm
OMG -- facts from an expert ... I'm melting I'm melting ;->
Alan - June 18, 2006 9:49 pm
Is an expert is someone you are already pre-disposed to agree with? Sadly, he appears not to have considered the difference between terrorist rather than commercial or military use. But you couldn't have missed that, David, surely.
David Janes - June 19, 2006 7:31 pm
Actually, I thought it was a fairly value neutral statement I was making. Since you want to get into it though, are you saying that the US government propped up domestic fertlizer production so terrorists could blow up American buildings?
Alan - June 19, 2006 7:55 pm
I am linking to a book which said that two years ago. Can you go read that book and comment?
Alan - June 19, 2006 8:00 pm
OK, not <i>that</i>. It said that it created inadvertantly the present situation but trying to solve a early COld war production problem but again, the thought is that author's.
The Remittance Man - June 21, 2006 1:25 pm
I thought I did note the difference between terrorist and commercial/military use. However in an earlier post it was asserted that the Eisenhower Administration propped up the US fertilizer industry for military reasons. I simply pointed out the reasons why I thought you were mistaken given my professional knowledge of explosives.
For military applications, ANFO is was and always will be less useful compared to what is available to the military it's too bulky for the effect. TNT, C4, Ammonol, hell, even old fashioned dynamite pack a far bigger demolition punch per pound than ANFO does. It would be inefficient as the filler for bombs and shells and not very good for the demolition of buildings and bridges.
Still if you don't want to listen to someone with qualifications in explosives technology, I can't force you.
RM
Alan - June 21, 2006 1:48 pm
That is fine and thank you for coming back but how does your qualifications in explosives technoology give you a background on the history of the Eisenhower Administration which is the point of the book I linked to under the link above? I am not mistaken in this matter as I am merely postulating but, if you are right the author of the book, Bill Minutaglio, could be.
But even if it is efficient for military use or commerical explosive use, it is obviously one of the most efficinet forms of mass explosive available to terrorists as their market driven demand to buy it shows. Have you displayed how your qualifications also provide insight into the economics of terrorist cell procurement practices?
So I am not against listening to you with your qualifications and do encourage you to write again - but I do not see that your qualifications for X extends to qualifications for Y and Z. I may be wrong in assuming they do not but you have not explained how they do. They are distinct aspects to the situation to my mind but please do write more as you will correct me and we will all be the wiser.
David Janes - June 21, 2006 2:12 pm
<blockquote>
Still if you don't want to listen to someone with qualifications in explosives technology, I can't force you.
</blockquote>
With no offence to anyone, I'm LOLing at this one. I have a strange mind, yes.
Alan - June 21, 2006 2:18 pm
I know you have that strange mind but also I trust you appreaciate that I will not buy a car from a good cheese maker.