Gen X at 40

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Comments

Gordo -

The world opened that can of worms in the 50's, Alan. What we got was South Korea and M.A.S.H. Can we afford to go there again?

Chris Taylor -

I am pretty sure "the world" did not violate the 38th parallel on June 25th, 1950 in response to an unstable, tyrannical regime. It was rather the opposite. That said I can't see any advantage in provoking a conflict there.

Japan has a pretty nice squadron of AEGIS destroyers, and once they are equipped with SM-3 missiles and BMD capability, who cares what warheads Kim Jong-Il wants to fling around.

ALan -

Sorry, I thought we were all about creating freedom.

Chris Taylor -

Only if the (non-nuclear-equipped) state sponsors terror through non-state actors, like Afghanistan. If you induce terror through the old-fashioned method of artillery barrage or nuclear brinkmanship then you mostly get a talking-to.

There are limits even to the freewheeling application of military force.

ry -

There really isn't much left to be done about the DPRK. It's already facing stiff economic sanctions. It's been 'the sick man of Europe'(the Ottoman Empire from the 1840s until the end of WW1), but in Asia, for over a decade. It's people are becoming shorter and suffering IQ degradation because of food shortages.
What's left to do about the DPRK? More sanctions?

The real sticking point is the PRC. If they aren't on board with regime change in DPRK it isn't going to happen. The US doesn't want to find itself fighting PLA/PLAN/PLAAF units in Korea. In that direction lay madness. So go castigate a Chinaman, Al. It's not as simple as some people seem to make it out(Nukes means everyone's scared to mess with you, but no nukes means you can be trashed without worry.). The politics of the region do come into play here. The only reason the PRC hasn't just gobbled up ROC is the potential US intervention. Same goes for DPRK. That's China's bufferzone and one they're not likely to give up given their military and diplomatic history concerning the place.

David -

The US should leave (should have left) SK and let them deal with it -- the US stationing large #s of troops around the world has infantalized too many societies, Korea being high on that list. A substantial # of people in that country thing NK's intentions are purely peaceful and NK's reactions are caused by US neocolonialism or whatever.

Hey, maybe they're right. Or more likely, provide a decent example of what the world is really like.

ry -

I disagree Mr. Janes. Let's not make the error of decoupling it from history and the web of geopolitics. The Truman Doctrine put us there and has kept us there.

Retreating from the world isn't a solution really either. Study up on the PRC. Do you really think letting them become the center of gravity for Asia and Oceana is best? i don't. And that's what you'd be doing by just withdrawing(well, to the point you've described it so far. You didn't flesh it out that much and so I'm trying to avoid taking to many liberties here). Don't overuse reductionism in the arena of geopolitics. Doing so creates some wacky distortions(hmmm, purple haze.)

David -

There's an incredible amount of resentment on the parts of Koreans, Japanese, Germans and others towards the presense of the US which is warping domestic politics in those countries. Korea, in particular, is probably the worst amongst those lists (as far as I can tell). S. Korea is more than capable of defending itself if it wants, and I'm not saying "don't help them if they ask for it". And in fact, the most useful US help will not come from boots on the ground but from the technology that the US is particularly useful at (long range bombers, stealth, JDAM, bunker buster, cruise missiles).

Good place to make another point that should be fleshed out more: it's really hard to build technology that requires "fine" controls -- witness the NK missile failures, which is why missile defense isn't that bad an idea. One of the more useful items the US sent the USSR during WWII was copper wire for communications, which the USSR couldn't manufacture in required lengths and qualities for stringing across battlefields and fronts.

ry -

ACtually, David, I'm leary of giving some of the stuff you listed to either Japan, SouKor, or Taiwan. SouKor is notoriously innundated with DPRK intel operatives and commandos. Ditto Taiwan wrt PRC agents. Japan has problems with its Korean population(often treated as second class citizens) at times being fronts for DPRK intel agents as well. Giving any of them our JDAM, Low Radar Observable, and the like is essentially giving those same designs to both DPRK and the PRC. That's why we've been largely selling older and less capable materiale to them. SM-3/PAC-3 to Japan and Taiwan being a real break from this policy.
Never mind. You didn't say give. YOu meant support with. I'm an idiot.

Total agreement on SouKor handling any attack from the DPRK totally on their own. It'll just take a couple days longer and a buttload more civillian casualties.

My read of Japan isn't of a monolithic hatred of the US. Not even a consistent opinion of dislike. It ebbs and flows. A buddy of mine says you can see the sentiments in things like Godzilla movies and anime and manga to plot the overall mood, and I believe him since he's a lit prof. Like seeing whether Godzilla is seen as somewhat a protector of Japan(the late 60s and 70s where Cold War fears in full effect(except maybe Godzilla vs. the Smog Monster)) or a mindless destroyer that ravages Japan(the first movie, much of the 90s iterations of the genre). In the Ghost in the Shell series the US is portrayed as a malevolent empire(specifically, and what I've seen was produced in '03 and '04), but in something like the Read or Die manga the US has shifted in protrayal from bumbling, arrogant empire in the anime movie to launch the series to necessary ally and protector. It's pretty fluid and nuanced.
2 years ago general opinion was highly negative in these mediums. But now, with NorKor occupying much of the Japanese attention, we're not so much unkultury to them anymore(so what if I used russian instead of Japanese. Gaijin is so overused.).
Koizumi's trip is also a good example of this shift in Japanese attitude.
Yeah, there's still a lot of anger in places like Okinawa(but that's as much a product of Marines raping 12 year olds or running over little kids as the mere presence of US forces). But there's also the fact that Japan assented to the Kitty Hawk(CV-63) replacement being a nuclear powered ac carrier. Something they weren't willing to do last year or three years ago.

I've never had a good read on SouKor. Just never really got around to it. But from what little I have seen we haven't done a whole lot to bolster our image in that country.

But of course, the general plan for the next decade is to create a regional rapid reaction force staged out of the Ryuku Islands. So we will be leaving Korea if that's adhered to.

And I'm not so sure that the dislike is as intense or far reaching as you seem to imply. It's definitely there, it seems to flare up whenever the US votes in a republican, but it also seems rather shallow if broad.

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