I haven't linked to much to the forty-one posts I have written for the CBC Election Roundtable but I wrote two short pieces today that I think were better than average. One is on the last days of this election and the other is on the possibility of Canada electing its least loved Prime Minister of all time.
Three days and four posts to go.
Comments
Erik Sorenson - January 21, 2006 3:48 PM
Lover grows.
Alan - January 21, 2006 4:37 PM
I make a CPC vote of 38.00% as the just fifth worst showing of all time out of, what, 39 elections? The other below 38% after 1867, 1979 and 2994 include the 1962 Tories at 37.22%. Shouldn't Harper have to achieve at least the level of popular support that heralded the end of Dief's career if this is to be consdered a break-through?
Matt Fletcher - January 21, 2006 5:51 PM
Your numbers however do not seem to account for percentage of voter turnout. How do you compare, say, 38% gained of a 55% overall turnout versus, say, 36% gained of a 70% turnout?
I don't have the necessary math skills.
Alan - January 21, 2006 6:27 PM
Very good point but should be balanced by the disenfranchised in the population - widows got the vote in 1883 but the rest of womenkind only in 1918. Status aboriginals only got the right to vote in 1960. <p>The other odd thing to notice were the early "unknown" candidates. In 1867 they got 33.84% of the total. Likely local loonies.
SayNay? - January 21, 2006 6:47 PM
From the Echo Chamber:
Apply the same analysis to the Liberals.
At 28%: Worst. Showing. EVER. Proving, presumably that Paul Martin is least loved leader of the Natural Governing Party, ever. Shouldn't that have a greater "jolt" factor in the country?
NB. pre-1993 analysis is skewed by the Bloc.
(btw, Matt its the % that matters in Al's analysis, not the number of votes cast )
SayNay? - January 21, 2006 6:49 PM
That should be "post" 1993 analysis is skewed by the Bloc, when attempting to compare with "pre" 1993 results.
Alan - January 21, 2006 7:51 PM
Fair enough about the Grits - and welcome back from your sentence. Is it going to be their worst showing ever? In 1984 they were reduced to 28.02% They may beat that but it will be close.<p>But I don't believe the Bloc is a unique factor as there were many fourth and fifth parties over the decades. Have a look at 1935 where <a href=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election%2C_1935">well over 20% voted for neither the Grits or Tories</a>. The Reconstructionists of that election appear to be classic right wing schismists who drew 8.73% of the vote as a fourth party.