<i>What could possibly make you change you vote other than the polls?</i>

A New Democratic economist.

There was a reasonable op-ed in the Mop and Pail yesterday about Iran. The key problem (in my mind, and as the op-ed talks about) is that the young people in Iran are very pro-West but any sort of military action will destroy all that good will and make the citizenry rally around the regime.

And on the other hand, if the mullahs aren't thwarted, they're going to iradicate Israel and probably other places in the next 5 to 10 years.

Has Tory support stalled? Meaning that they might reach something like 145-150 seats, but not the promised land of majority governance? Actually, that's fine with me. Harper can work with others, and probably would govern better that way anyway.

As for Iran -- darned if I know. They've done enough to justify some level of intervention, but it would be a terrible shame given that the social development of the youth has been such that, well, I'd love to give them a chance to change things on their own...

Do you think the sound of "thwart a mullah" is funny in a elementary school kind of way?

I tend to lump polls in with statistics. As in: "There are lies, damn lies and statistics". I wish I could remember who said that. A co-worker and I have been discussing Canadian voters and I have a hard time believing that otherwise intelligent people would actually change their vote based on who's ahead in a poll. John, however, thinks we're stupid and go with the wind.

Thanks for the mention, Alan. :-) I'm quite enjoying this and your Beer Blog. I also regularly follow <a href="www.westcoastgirl.com">'nee's</a>. Back in the "old pre-Internet days", the local users of FidoNet 249 were VERY active and the source of a lot of great reading. It's too bad that more of us aren't around anymore. I've been diligently looking for more local blogs and they're darn hard to find.

Re bloggers: There's a large circle of Queen's bloggers - Eve, just for instance, links to about ten; interestingly a lot of them do or did write for Golden Words at Queen's. Then there's Optimus Crime et al, as well, another local source for quality blogging. There's also quite the Queen's LiveJournal community. As for non-Queen's-affiliated Kingstonites (even Gordo and I don't fit that bill) there really aren't many. Heck, even the Kingston swingers' site has closed down. The Internets are vacant: quick, put up a For Rent sign.

Reaching more a little more on my part, the "Axis of Weasel" -- Russia, Germany and France -- have more or less set the situation up like Iraq: no matter what the US does, it will weaken the US. Also, if the US acts in Iran, Iraq's a write-off (IMHO).

Re: Tory Majority. My good friend Old Joe has a very good comment on this. The media's just making the majority stuff up -- there's almost no chance unless there's some massive switch from the BQ to the Cs or Toronto acts very atypically.

Re: this: yes. A question for everyone: why is "Firetruck" the funniest English language word? I spent a year giggling every time I heard it...

I was doing a little note taking on a gross oversimplification of three Canadas: Ontario, what's to the west and what's to the east as a means of thinking about seat disctribution and I think you have it, David. The Tories has seven seats out of 107 east of Ontario and 24 in it. To add the, what 55 seats they need they have to shake the East fantastically (ain't going to happen) or take 70% of Ontario (ain't going to happen).<p>By the way, on population Ontario is underrepresented in Parliament by something like 16 seats - 122 instead of 106 would express the fact of 40% of the population living here.

Thanks for the links, 'nee. I'm only affiliated with Queen's as an employer. I went to Loyalist College because I wanted a practical education. :-) I <b>am</b> a born and raised Kingstonian, though. Townie through and through.

why is "Firetruck" the funniest English language word?

I really don't know. What am I missing?

Well my 50 Tory seat prediction is looking a bit pessimistic; but I would say rumours of a Tory majority are a bit over the top as well.

Voting efficiency is the key here. You want your guys to win by small margins in a lot of ridings rather than huge margins in only a few. That in mind consider:

Tories at 20+ percent in Quebec. The CPC better pray that those figures are purely Montreal where they might have a chance of electing some members rather than spread throughout the province.

Tories at 1000% in Alberta. Taking Medicine Hat with 72% of the vote rather than 68% is not significant save that it distorts the regional polls. For the Tories to win a majority they have to win in Manitoba and BC. They may well do this but in BC at least there are tight races.

The View from the CN Tower: breaking through in Toronto is the key to a majority. the numbers there are iffy and the prospect of a Tory majority remains a bit daunting. A breakout could occur. Especially if Torontonians join in the national laughter at the Dumpling's attack ads. but they didn't last time so why can we assume they will this time?

But I am almost certainly going to have to buy James Bow a beer - perhaps Alan I might appoint you my agent in this endevour thereby ensuring Bow gets a really good beer.

It would be my honour. I think you have it. Being too thin in a lot of ridings or too thick in a few is no good. That is the remaining Tory problem unless people just drift away over ten days, all the news being now presented.

Re: Tory wins etc., anything can happen except Quebec going Liberal. So, almost anything can happen at election time. This is what we've learned from the Kim Campbell episode. A majority for the Tories is not impossible. It's not even unlikely. But we who might like to have a child care program do not need a Tory minority either.

David, Thanks for the plug. There is no chance of a Tory majority. The seats simply are not available, and while anything can happen in theory, the reality is that they cannot. A breakthrough in Quebec would be three seats for the Tories; in Toronto 5 seats. There are gains to be made for the Tories in Atlantic Canada - 2 seats in Newfoundland, 2 in New Brunswick and 1 or 2 in NS - but the Tories popularity in the West is a vote count that does not result in significant seat gains. Even if the Tories clean up in the 905 GTA, they still will not get over the top. Majority predictions, by a press that can read the polls as well as I can, are mere fear mongering.

Of course. The Tories are saying that there is no chance of a majority. This is because they fear a backlash. One thing though, with the Liberals unable to take Quebec, a majority for the Tories is possible. The polls are saying majority. I am skeptical when it comes to polls but, you know, every one of the would be Tory supporters could be thinking: "Minority, please for the love of God, minority..." and it could still end up a majority. It's a crapshoot. Nobody can predict. Speaking of which, where is the betting pool?

What an odd land where talk of a majority by a party is fear mongering while talk of a minority is being a mouth piece of a faceless conspiratorial media.