Gen X at 40

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gorthos -

I crashed at about 1:00 am after the results and I'm back up at 5:40. zzzzz. I emailed Warren and Jason after a few beer as I promised I would and claimed their flies were undone.. no response (sheesh).. Beer makes you email friends stupid things ugh.

Need a big tea.

Manchester game on at 12:00 crud, that'll cut into convention fun.

gorthos -

I'm on the verge of crashing out of the convention without evenbeing there. Too much input not enough happening.

My guess. Second ballot, Iggy: 27.5%, Rae: 31% Dion/Kennedy: 32%
Third: Dion and Kennedy merge as a single human, Rae gives them supporers, everyone else but Iggy and Dryden dropout. Dryden starts wrestling with Iggy on floor of congress hall and much scurrying and screaming results. in the end, we will have the first bi-umvirate leader(s) being Gersteph Dioneddy

Alan -

HAH!!!

That is why you know <i>zippo</i>. I woke this morning fresh and new like a...fresh and new thing and it was clear to me. It was as if I knew only one thing - there are daggers out. Mayhem is afoot and it has a banner that reads "Anybody But Dryden". The ABD surge is upon us.

Flea -

The Kennedy character seems a bit <i>slick</i> to be Canadian Prime Minister material.

Alan -

Rule #1: We cannot have a prime minister with rectangular glasses.

Douglas -

Dry-den! Dry-den! Dry-den!

gorthos -

Martha went to Dion.. Brison went to the Tin Man.. Dryden went to crazytown, had a glass of angry drink and came back all a fire.

I predict Rae now. And I am not unhappy about that even as a Kennedy guy

Alan -

Third vote results now about 45 minutes away. Kennedy and Dryden votes floating around. That means we only have this one and another and it is over. I think Iggy is stuck at a number that is very similar to the conservative vote in the Canada. Dion could be first, second or third. I say that Iggy goes to Rae and says something outrageously offensive as he does it, maybe even hitting a supporter as he does it. Then he and get in this pushing and shoving stuff and Dion takes off his shirt to reveal a crudely painted letter D on his chest making a big war whoop. That is what I expect to happen.

cm -

And all of a sudden I'm having a Sesame Street flashback - D on you!

Alan -

Excellent. Rae releases his supporters to the four winds. Iggy or Dion? I just do not get what Dion does for us all? But the same is true for the Igg-meister. But Tony Valerie (sp?) is now getting a Igg-hug. That makes me feel funny. Seeing other old Grits wearing green scarves is weird, too. I am all alone all of a sudden. Scared and alone.

Alan -

If I only had a sense of where Geoff Regan was going.

Ben (The Tiger) -

Alan -- I think that what appeals about Dion is what appeals about Harper -- and given that you've proven immune to the latter, it shouldn't be all that surprising that you're untouched by the former.

:-)

David Janes -

<p>
The question for me is whether the losers will stick about, now that the top dog job has slipped away? Bob Rae looked pretty grim on my TV -- I enjoyed a nice thirty seconds screaming and laughing at him through the TV. Very cathartic.

<p>
In the meantime, how about this 2 Oct flashback:

<blockquote>
Start paying attention to Dion.
</blockquote>

Flea -

I would like to congratulate myself for immediately agreeing with David in that flashback.

Flea -

For people who were not raised by party hacks (albeit conservative hacks in my case) here is the math:

Ignatieff - Less charismatic than Harper. Brings no Western seats and offers no challenge re. Conservative seats in Quebec.

Rae - The Conservative dream leader. Hands 905 and a Conservative majority to Harper.

Kennedy - Extremely charismatic, locks up Ontario and challenges the Conservatives in the West. But cannot (yet) speak French thereby handing Quebec to the Bloc. Probably the next Liberal Prime Minister with a majority government.

That leaves Dion. And, I suspect, continued minority government; Conservative in the short term unless Harper fumbles. It was never that Dion offers anything positive, just that he is the least problematical.

Finally there is the imponderable of Liberal tradition: They like to alternate "English" and "French" leaders. A substantial number of Quebec delegates probably think Martin was the English turn.

Alan -

But would either David or the Flea vote for Dion?

Alan -

Yet you and I and David are the people they need to vote for them. And I don't see me doing that.

David Janes -

I was going to congrat Flea -- results seconds away now. They're really dicking around Iggy -- they've had him hanging out there for 15 minutes now and he obviously knows the result. Chretien blew it -- the results were on his BlackBerry and the press saw it (almost 30-40 minutes ago)

Flea -

The Blackberry thing was hilarious.

I would like to point out once again that Stronach is looking fine. <i>Damn</i> fine.

Alan -

I think I <i>will</i> vote for them as they were able to get the final tally in after 6 pm just because Mansbridge said no one would.

Alan -

Bels looks a wee bit less like her Dad now.<p>Oh, gee. Dion won.

David Janes -

Iggy is almost crying now (5:59 PM). ...

Obviously they want to cross top of the hour:

Dion wins. Iggy loses.

It sounds like they're playing a rip off of Where a Street Has No Name in the background.

David Janes -

Damn, you beat me. I was waiting for the damned #.

Alan -

The Edge has a lot of explaining to do to us all for the twenty-five or more years of that tinkly-twangy stuff.

Alan -

Stupidest question from a reporter:<blockquote class="smalltext">"Do you think you will beat him in an election?"</blockquote>

David Janes -

So ... would I vote for him? I don't think I'm a vote that could be captured by the Liberals (though I've spoiled my ballots in many any election in refusing to vote for anyone). I like boring; boring is good. I'm very curious what his platform is going to be.

I can't see this being good for the Liberal Party -- isn't it time we had another Quebec lawyer as PM?

Quebec -- out of play for the Liberals
Ontario & Atlantic Canada -- status quo
Alberta -- out of play, even more so
BC -- if you can figure these guys out, let me know.

David Janes -

Edge's explanation: it's easy to play, sounds great with a 250ms delay, and sounded really fresh in '81.

David Janes -

I'll have to disagree with Flea on Stronach; it looks like she's been tweaked. Hair colour's an improvement; if the Liberals don't win the next election I don't see her sticking around unless she's planning to make a run at the leadership.

Alan -

The thing may turn on Kennedy. I think that playing him hard in Ontario will bring more seats to the Grits. Atlantic Canada, too. Especially as the social engineering is really starting to play out.

Gordo -

My vote will be determined by how much they steal from the Greens. I'm guessing not much.

Flea -

I would not have voted for any of them so my personal opinion is moot. I was merely offering colour commentary.

David Janes -

I assume the Greens are going to pick up votes from the NDP.

What seats can Kennedy deliver to the Liberals in Ontario? We'll see, but unless there's some deep seated disatisfaction against the Blues I don't know what the appeal is/was.

Just dug this up.
http://www.elections.ca/pas/39ge/39official.pdf

gorthos -

Finally.. I can stop blogging about the party for a while. Relief. NO MORE POLITICAL POSTINGS FOR TWO WEEKS AT GORTHOS.COM

I left the party because of Martin after 17 years, two seats on riding executives and a directorship and ya know, Dions win, the arrival of Justin T, the hope of GK entering federal politics and Cretien's speech tonight will keep me around now. Pssst. something local is in the works for Ktown that I cannot speak of here, something wonderful (my god its full of stars, etc )

I wasn't a Dionista but I have been assured that GK and his vision (and Justin's and mine and many others) will be brought along with Stephane to Ottawa. I'm happy with that. That and the political demise of Iggy the Tin Man.

Hans -

Would it be gauche of me to say "I told you so"?

Alan -

I knew what would happen but had the good manners to keep it to myself.

Jay Currie -

I was blogging this elsewhere but I am amused, as ever, watching the politically homeless live blogging for the sheer joy of it.

I expect Dion will do surprisingly well in BC if a) he keeps banging the Kyoto gong, b) the Tories can't get it together enough to really nail the BS which underlies Kyoto.

Out here people seem willing to both drive their SUVs and take a sort of masochistic pleasure in believing that the world will end because they are driving their SUVs. Dion appears ready to pander to this. And, sadly, the Tories seem entirely incapable of either saying "We have concluded global warming is real and we are willing to sink the Canadian economy to make a fractional difference" or "We think man made global warming is a crock, here's why, and we are not about to sink the Canadian economy to make a totally insignificant change which will be overwhelmed by one weeks' carbon output from China in any event."

As long as the Tories are unwilling to make the contra Kyoto case, Dion and his dog are going to win votes in BC.

gorthos -

How Wunderlich

6+ Kennedy ex-officios now state that they voted for Martha as a sympathy vote not knowing how it would effect the final tally. If even two people voted for Dion because of their move, it means that Kennedy would have moved into third. Ugh

scott -

I read that in the Star today, gorthos. All I can say, if that was the case, I don't want a possible Prime Minister, in Kennedy, who plays intermurals in a varsity setting. There's no such thing as sympathy in politics. Just ask little jean chretien.

As well, if your going to give sypmathy, you should expect it in return. Obviously Martha's not the sympathy type.