Oddly, Barry Zito, whose best years were now three or four years ago, has been much discussed in the media this Yule - at least the media I am following. The interesting thing is that he has become sort of a benchmark for the end of value or perhaps overvalue. This has been something of a mad off-season for pitching so far, with an influx of Japanese hurlers as well as a massive and mad overpayment for third-in-the-line-up players like Ted Lily. As a result, Mr. Zito now sits as the supposed prize pick of all the trades with many owners now wondering what all the fuss might have been. Yet he he will play somewhere:
If he is comforted by staying on the West Coast, where he has lived and pitched, he may opt for San Francisco or Seattle. If he is intrigued by the challenge of pitching in New York, he will have at least one option, and maybe two. The Mets remain very interested in Zito but are not comfortable offering him more than $75 or $80 million. The Yankees? If they trade Randy Johnson, they will have an opening on the starting staff and a payroll that can more easily absorb Zito’s salary. But whether the Yankees value Zito enough to make a real run at him remains to be seen.For November's alleged $100 million dollar plus man that is quite a comedown. But, given that right now Boston looks like an incredible dominant pitching staff - at least on paper and inevitable injuries pending - like so much in life, there is at least desire if not demand to make quality out of what is available. The Times has a good multimedia bit on Mr. Zito. See him hold a guitar.
Barry Zito right now strikes me as a greater example of the risk of hype, one downside of the marketplace where your overconfidence in value swings the final price below what it might have been. I was struck by what I think was the same principle when looking at 42 inch screen TVs yesterday. The $300 dollar one at Loblaws with the huge tube ended up winning over the $800 to $2000 ones at Future Shop. Why? Because of that exact one word - why. Why spend so much now when in a year or two the big screens will do so much better for less? Why create a streamlined military based on flawed economic theory when suffocating domination is the tried and tested way? Why spend $100 million on Zito when that much or less will run a number of minor teams from which the next great pitcher will come? What do you do when you are most likely next year's version of last year's model?
Comments
ry - December 28, 2006 1:41 pm
I'm back. Dontcha wish you'd locked the back door?;)
"Why create a streamlined military based on flawed economic theory when suffocating domination is the tried and tested way? " I can think of at least two.
a) It isn't as tried and tested as you think. The word guerilla is Spanish and stems from when Nappy(Napolean) with his massive Grand Arme tried to subdue Spain. He couldn't do it.
1947. Massive Arab armies from TWO directions get smashed by a ragtag bunch with rather castoff gear using a mix of Big War and Little War strategies and tactics.
Big doesn't equate to victory. It's a tool for a particular job. No more. No less.
b) 'Soldiers in peace are like chimneys in summer'---some English fart who thought it wisdom.
Back to baseball.
Zito may not be the dominate guy he was in the past. He's still an extremely solid pitcher. Anyone getting him is going to see a major improvement in their pitching staff. And a change of scenery has a way of re-invigorating one's career. But $100MUS? I guess that comes down to how badly one wants a WS ring.
In the halycon days we have people claiming that we pay to much for defense while ignoring that when you decide to DO something you need the forces now and not in the 2-4 years it'll take to assemble, train, and equip the force.
Simply put, economics and democratic choice are forcing people to find ways of getting the job done streamlined. It remains to be seen whether it can or cannot be done(Fat Lady has yet to sing imo).
Alan - December 28, 2006 4:10 pm
Happy New Year, ry, and thanks for that I was quite certain that I had made no sense whatsoever in that bit above.
Alan - December 28, 2006 8:22 pm
The world makes no sense.
Gordo - December 28, 2006 11:52 pm
Massive deals like these, which no person is worth, just make the team in question a target for the mockers of the world. Me, for instance. Every fibre of my being is hoping that this is a bum deal for the Giants. <a href="http://www.amazon.ca/Moneyball-Michael-Lewis/dp/0393324818/sr=8-1/qid=1167364283/ref=pd_ka_1/702-1768336-6355213?ie=UTF8&s=books" target="_blank">Moneyball</a>, anyone?
ry - December 29, 2006 12:56 am
Ack. Something odd happened there.
Stuff is out of place. You make sense Al. Even if you do things a bit oblique from time to time. ;)
Ack. Moneyball? Name a team that has actually won in the playoffs following that model? No. No moneyball. Moneyball is the personification of what I hate most about baseball fans---the over reduction of the game to merely stats and probs. Yes, numbers matter in the game, but you can't quantify much of what is imprtant in baseball so you can't really win by a quantified approach. The qualitative element is what makes great coaches and general managers a breed apart from the also ran.
Gordo - December 29, 2006 2:44 am
Maybe so, but throwing inane amounts of money at a potential has-been is ludicrous. It has the very real potential to drive away once-loyal fans.
Alan - December 29, 2006 9:42 am
I now hate the Giants. They turf Alou Sr., let Jr. go and now this. I hates 'em, I hates 'em!