I watched it on CPAC last night and it was clear to me, despite the hand wringing, that:
- it was not a confidence vote
- the Liberals do not lack the support of the House of Commons.
When that vote comes in the next week or two, expect all Liberal members to be in the House. Last night two cabinet members were missing. That will make the vote 152 to 153 against the Government. Then, Chuck Cadman's chemo cycle will allow him to travel. Make it 153-153. Then my MP, the Speaker, will vote making it 154-153 for the Government. Further, the by-election in Labrador is coming and the Liberals will likely win that, making the Speaker's vote unnecessary after that. Harper's moment will have passed.
So for now, it appears that if all the House voted, the Grits would win. Cadman has said he is an old Reformer and will obey the wishes of his riding which is running at last word at 75% against an election. So, for now, Harper can harp on as his ill MP's chemo cycles are supporting him now. In two weeks who knows. Kind of sad and pathetic but, hey, it's politics.
Update: Jay raises an interesting point as to whether the House can conduct substantive business in the interim. Trouble for the Tories is - they did. Look at the events in the House after "the vote" - CPC members spoke and voted. Hard for them to say today that there is no authority for an operative Parliament as there was last night. Does the lex Parliamentaria recognize "fresh steps" as a bar to complaint about the past in the way the common law does?
Comments
James Bow - May 11, 2005 9:28 am
I agree with your assessment, but how likely is Chuck Cadman to vote with the government? He strikes me like he could go either way.
Alan - May 11, 2005 9:33 am
Cadman said in an article in <i>The Globe</i> or maybe <i>The Star</i> about two weeks ago he is seriously in support of the Government as his constituents are 3-1 against an election according to his pollings and meetings. That may change obviously but that is the last I heard. If he flips, even Labrador won't save the Grits as that would make it 154-153 before the Speaker.
Ian King - May 11, 2005 10:21 am
Latest talk from out here is that the calls to Cadman's office are running 3-2 against bringing down the government, and Chuck had earlier said that he'd need an overwhelming response in favour in order to change his mind -- he personally favours waiting for the Gomery commission to wrap up.
As you guys may know, most BCers don't want a federal election right now, being as we are a bit busy with one right now, with the municipals coming up in the fall. The exception is in those congenitally Conservative ridings where the locals are itching to get their party into power. Cadman's riding is not one of those; the part of Surrey he represents (very blue-collar, not at all Bible Belt) is actually going to go NDP in next week's provincials. So it's no surprise that people from within Cadman's riding aren't pushing for him to bring down the Liberals.
Alan - May 11, 2005 10:45 am
Hey - thanks Ian
portland - May 11, 2005 12:38 pm
i think that this is the first time since its inception that having a reform party guy around has actually made canadian politics more interesting.
Mike - May 11, 2005 4:36 pm
You may or may not be right about the technicality of whether it was a confidence voet or not. But at the rate (~$20 billion, so far) that Martin has been bribing people/parties to stay in power, he'll piss away another $10 billion by the end of next week. It's obsene that the party that has been rigging elections with tax payers' money for so long has elevated their corrupt practice to this level.
Alan - May 11, 2005 5:25 pm
I don't think you are in agreement with the Government on that point.
Timmy the G - May 13, 2005 12:25 pm
I think your take on this is right, Alan. It wasn't a non-confidence vote, but given that the government has clearly lost the confidence of the house, it behooves Martin to call a formal non-confidence vote fairly soon. I believe next week's vote satifies that obligation, although there are many disagree with that assessment.
Regardless of this manufactured "crisis", Martin's government is on its last legs, and that is probably a good thing.
Alan - May 13, 2005 12:54 pm
What if there is <i>Son of Martin Government</i> after the next vote? Maybe there will by a phase of <i>Tiny Torytown</i> minority which too will fail as the Bloc will bite their rump as well and then we will have <i>Return of the Martin Monster!</i> <p>Where will it end?