I think the poll released by the CBC this morning captures the mood of the nation well. The pollster summarizes:
...the numbers indicate no party could form a majority government. "We would see a very fractious Parliament and a great difficulty, I would think, in forming any government that would last."Look at some of the key findings in important Liberal areas where you would think the Tories would be moving up:
- In the Greater Toronto area, the Liberals are at 34%, Tories 22%, NDP 21%, 4% Green and 12% undecided. The Tories have made no breakthrough.
- In Quebec the Bloc have 38%, Tories 14%, Liberals 10% NDP 9% per cent. 29% are elsewhere. No Tory breakthrough and the second largest group is "none of the above".
- In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead the Tories 27% to 23%.
The real questions from the poll are what makes the Liberals so attractive and what makes the Tories to unattractive. For me, it boils down to Martin and Harper. One balanced then wildly surplussed the federal budget; the other has never run a governing body as large as a district school board. One respects the Charter; one has indicated that judges that use as it was written are somehow vaguely undermining some self-selected unanalysed Canadian character called "tradition" or "heritage". One has unleashed an investigation of his own party that may destroy it but which is exposing everything; one indicates that he will not follow the policy set by the convention of his party. For the Tories to overcome their shortfalls, they have to show more than the Liberals were bad in the late 1990s. They have to move to showing why they should lead. They have yet to do that and the numbers show it.
Comments
The Other Ben - April 15, 2005 8:37 AM
Party pooper. I demand that Liberal heads roll! I just can't find anyone to replace them with. What was it that one of our esteemed former prime ministers said about the whore you know?
Alan - April 15, 2005 8:48 AM
Remember when Mulroney hit 12%? Now that was a hated Prime Minister. Martin has nothing on that guy. My gut reaction is that we will have a Liberal/NDP working coalition in the majority after the next election. 100 Liberals and 55 NDP. OK...well maybe that's nuts. A boy can dream.
Guinness - April 15, 2005 11:33 AM
For the record, the Tories balanced the budget buy implementing the GST. The GST was so hated, the Tories were voted out of office in favour of the Grits who promised to get rid of the GST. We all know how that worked out.
Guinness - April 15, 2005 11:38 AM
Oh, I forgot to add that although the GST balanced the budget, the massive surpluses came from cutting federal health care spending from 50% under the Tories to what 13% under the Grits. And donâ??t forget the $40 billion annual surplus raised from overcharging EI / UI on the backs of the working class. Too bad much of that surplus money went to Grit advertising firms and the Grits getting kickbacks.
Ben - April 15, 2005 11:58 AM
Hey, how did the first Ben on the blogroll demote himself to "The Other Ben" in comments? Wacky.
The numbers say Conservative minority. My gut says Liberal minority. I'm a pessimist. :-)
Had fun with the electoral forecaster this morning.
Alan - April 15, 2005 3:21 PM
Fair enough Guinness. We just hated the Mulroney Tories for themselves, I guess, and not their works!
Guinness - April 15, 2005 8:38 PM
I couldn't agree more. Hang 'em high.
Don - April 16, 2005 12:15 AM
I just was watching CTV and thought of you....
In Ontario
CPC 39
Lib 33
NDP 15
So, assuming the Greens aren't 16%, of decideds the Tories are over 40% in Ontario.
Just thought you'd like to know as I assume you only watch CBC.
Honestly though, I'm surprised at the numbers and with a margin of error of 5% for this sample size (350 in Ontario) it's too early to say that the Conservatives have gotten through the 'glass ceiling'.
Alan - April 16, 2005 9:11 AM
That would be big news if both the CBC and CTV are right as there would be a huge greater toronto and elsewhere split. But picking 350 in Ontario is the same as picking 3 in PEI so it is fairly stunned.
Alan - April 17, 2005 9:54 AM
36%? The Tories should call the election now. Except what if the NDP and Bloc refuse to go along? For years?
Marian - April 17, 2005 4:44 PM
I think the NDP and Bloc are willing. Jack Layton has been quoted as saying that for strategic reasons he isn't even going to say mean things about the Tories. Sigh. What a bad strategy.