The Ipsos-Reid firm has released the first polling since it has been revealed that the Federal Liberals are, well, not quite recalling what is "theirs" and and what is "ours" in terms of money. [Maybe they just listened to Raffi's children's song "It's Mine But You Can Have Some" one too many times.] Anyway, the poll results are astonishing...almost explosive:
The survey found that if an election were held tomorrow, 34 per cent of decided voters would vote for the Liberals, down three percentage points since February 2005, when Ipsos-Reid conducted its last poll. Thirty per cent would vote for the Conservative Party and 15 per cent would vote for the NDP. In the June 28, 2004 election, Liberals received about 37 per cent of the popular vote, while Conservatives took about 30 per cent and the NDP about 16 per cent...The greatest shift regionally was seen in Alberta. There, the Conservative Party has seen a 14 percentage point shift in its popularity, to 57 per cent, while the Liberals have seen a 16-point drop, to just 13 per cent.So the Tories finally hold a difference-settling policy convention while the media is on fire with the fact that the government is playing light with the books...and the Tories pick up exactly - not - one - voter. This is pathetic and they should be as embarrassed as Liberals by these figures. The funniest thing is that it does not matter if Alberta shifts from the Liberals as if every seat is one by 100% conservative vote they will still have only pretty much all the seats.
The rest of us really must have clear recollections of Mulroney.
Comments
Matt F. - April 9, 2005 5:56 PM
However, the poll was conducted between April 5 and 7, almost entirely before Brault's testimony hit the the MSM, which, obviously, more people pay attention to. Further, even given the date of the poll the Liberal-Tory gap closed substantially in Ontario with the Cons up 6 points and the Libs down 5, to a 38-34 Lib lead. With those numbers the Cons would would pick up several seats in Ontario. How many I don't know.
The almost unchanged national numbers seem to be mostly the result of an inexplicable (to me) 12 point Liberal gain in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, that came mostly at the expense of the NDP.
Where the Conservatives lost numbers to keep them even nationally is not entirely clear. Gains in Alberta and Ontario must mean relative lossess in B.C, Prairies, and Maritimes. (Quebec too, I suppose, but really...)
The closing gap in Ontario though is definitely the most significant thing, as far as what was reported in that CTV piece.
Alan - April 9, 2005 6:19 PM
Good detail. I think that we are still in flux. Plenty of peaople had plenty to chew on from 5 to 7 April so I don't think that counts for much. I think what is really happening is people do not like one bunch any more that the other and the one that will really pay is the one that triggers the vote.
Matt F. - April 9, 2005 7:01 PM
Interesting. Neale News is currently linking to the exact same CTV story with the 'explosive' headline 'SCANDAL BATTERING LIBERALS, POLL SHOWS TORIES CLOSING GAP.'
Funny how a little editorial comment prior to the more accurate clause describing the poll can change the perception.
ALan - April 9, 2005 8:22 PM
You are but a pup but I recall both Trudeau and Mulroney being in office and, say 20 percentage points behind for long periods of time. It is like people are scared of moving of this stalemate. Stability may be very attractive. I am starting to think that it will break but in regions, however, and that there may be an even more fractured Parliament. I just do not see a Tory swing.