I think it is time to start the speculation. We need a May or June election like ze whole in ze head but the powers that barely be are doing their best to stumble towards that sad day for all. So sayeth The Star:
But if a Quebec judge today grants a major delay in the case, Gomery could lift the ban and reveal possible damning allegations against the Liberal party, both federally and in Quebec. Everyone concedes that the testimony will further erode Liberal support in Quebec, where the party holds only 21 seats. The Bloc Québécois, which holds 54 seats, is boasting that it could win as many as 70 seats in the next election because of the sponsorship scandal. But the real issue is in Ontario, and it is quite unclear whether Tory Leader Stephen Harper can turn the Brault testimony into a winner for his party. Thus, the Tories have been reluctant to suggest they might try to defeat the government. Spokespersons for all the parties concede that an election would be unpopular and that citizens could want to punish whichever party is blamed for not making the minority Parliament work. Frank Graves, president of the EKOS Research polling firm, says that's his sense of the public's election-appetite right now. Graves did a poll this winter that seemed to indicate the sponsorship controversy was a spent force; that the Liberals' critics had got all the mileage they could from ethical issues. However, "now I'm not so sure," Graves conceded yesterday.So what would happen if there was an election. I think there will be a backlash on the sponsorship scandel as what comes out can never be as damning as the imaginations and rumours and the neophyte bloggy interest for all of those like the extra 3000 times people who showed up here an extra 5,000 times yesterday looking for the Gomery Commission answers - it will all turn into disgust with their realization that the entire medium and half their fears were a hoax. Thusly and therefore, here [Ed.: "too-tot-tooooooooot" go the horns!] is the next house of Commons IF the election is held before Canada Day:
- Liberal 121 (down 10 in Quebec, up a few elsewhere)
- Tories 95 (so sad, no one cared for the new puritanist)
- NDP 31 (Ontario likes its social freedoms)
- Bloc 61 (and they didn't even have to get out of bed to get there)
Update:As Normie points out, the Toronto Sun reports, surprise surprise, that the PQ did the same thing. Does this change anything if true? Should the Tories show their cards on this too? Oh...I forgot. No one has wanted them in power for almost two decades.
Comments
Don - April 6, 2005 10:32 AM
Are you sure you're living in Ontario?
Alan - April 6, 2005 10:35 AM
I do not drink the same water as you, I know that!<p>There has been no surge to the Tories has there? I mean outside of your house. Prove it, man! We love to wallow in polls and facts.
Don - April 6, 2005 12:14 PM
My proof is that for the first time ever, politics was brought up at work and people were sincerely disgusted by the Liberal Party.
And the guy I carpool with said this morning - "I didn't think I'd say this but it may be time for Harper to be Prime Minister"
I await the polls though I somewhat expect Frank Graves from Ekos to come out with a poll - taken just before the shit hit the fan, showing the Tories 'stalled' and the electorate saying they don't want an election.
Alan - April 6, 2005 12:17 PM
Don't you work at Tory party HQ?<p>I think your last point on the electorate is the main one in all of this.
Don - April 6, 2005 12:23 PM
"Don't you work at Tory party HQ?"
I wish!
As for the electorate wanting an election - considering 50% don't vote and wouldn't want one ever - is it a surprise? Who cares if they don't want an election? Maybe we should institute referendums on when to have elections so nobody 'angers' the electorate. It's ridiculous.
Alan - April 6, 2005 12:30 PM
The Tories fear the backlash of they trigger the election but they also have to trigger it in the first wave as, if we learn that the PQ got money and if we learn there is less than the rumours, their day will have passed. They are in the hot seat as much as the Liberals on this as it would be easy to screw up as they have a habit of screwing up.
Ben - April 6, 2005 11:24 PM
I've been saying since this broke (ok, since Sunday) that I think the Tories should push the government over now.
If they did:
CPC: 115
Liberals: 100
Bloc: 67
NDP: 36
A very rough guess.
If they wait for the fall:
Liberals: 115
CPC: 105
Bloc: 65
NDP: 23
People who right now will vote against the Liberals will think calmly about it again and vote against the unknown, preferring to stick with "the devils they know."
In either timeframe, I see the next Parliament being just as unstable. I think that if the government falls in the next month or so, though, we will see a change in the prime ministership. If not, no.
Alan - April 6, 2005 11:31 PM
That's the spirit, Ben. Let's get a pool going!<p>That first Parliamnet is really ugly when you think about it. What would they ever be able to achieve. 203 seats pro-Kyoto, pro-gun control, pro-SSM. And no PM.
Ben - April 7, 2005 1:25 AM
I am guessing that's why Harper isn't pulling the trigger. He's playing for more -- a large enough minority that he doesn't have to rely so much on the Bloc or an outright majority. But he may yet lose it all by doing that.