Update: The deadline is being pushed back so keep getting in those picks. The game is on, people!!!
OK...I am going to extend the picks to Sunday [a date to be fixed...kinda like Florida] at which time the voting extension committee will meet...[did meet...couldn't agree...it's a madhouse of open-endedness for now...]
Bonus five points if you get got your votes in before the first debate tomorrow night started. Most of what you need to know is here at the Electoral Vote Predictor 2004. The rules once again are...
1. Electoral college overall: 50 points for being spot on, one point lost for every electoral college vote off +/- for the winner. No points for being 50 or over off score. Total 538 so 270 needed to win.
My picks: I say...um...285 Kerry and 253 Bush. I do not care if that combination is actually possible. Nearness is what matters.
2. President: 30 points for naming the winner.
My pick: I obviously say Kerry...not because it is obvious he will win but because I gave him the most electoral votes.
3. Key States: 10 points for picking the winner in the following states correctly - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, Missouri, Colorado.
My picks: Kerry: Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio; Bush: Maine, Colorado.
4. Senate: 20 points for for being spot on, four points lost for every senate seat off +/- for the final count of the majority.
My picks: 49 Democrats, 50 Republicans and 1 Independent.
5. Wild card: Pick your own non-Federal race at any level down to local district attorney for an incumbant to lose. 20 points if you picked right.
Did I mention there are prizes? I always give out prizes.My picks: hmmm...this is tricky. I think in the 49th District of the New York State Senate, the Democratic Candidate David Valesky is goin' to Albany!!!
He's goiing to win because the right has split the vote with both Republican incumbant and Independent Conservative candidates. Has the right learned nothing from Preston Manning???
Comments
'nee - September 29, 2004 8:23 PM
You forgot the prize for whoever can guess the closest percentage of votes, and for whom, will be produced by electoral fraud! Isn't that one worth a prize?
Ben - September 29, 2004 9:58 PM
I really want to watch the debate tomorrow night but I have a feeling I'm still going to be in the midst of moving. For me they're an exercise in frustration as what the general populace thinks constitutes a debate win and what I, as a former debater and communication major, think constitues a win are entirely different. Have I told you I was at one of the Gore/Bush debates? I have the ticket stub to prove it.
Wayne - September 29, 2004 10:13 PM
1)277-261
2)Bush
3)REVISED - Bush in Florida, Missouri,Ohio and Pa.
4)55 G.O.P. - 45 Democrats
5)Washington State Auditor - Will Baker (R)
I am size Large most shirts.
Nicholas - September 30, 2004 1:06 AM
Since you're clearly voting your heart and not your (calculating) head, I'll follow suit:<BR><BR>
1) Electoral College: 290 Bush, 240 Kerry, 4 Nader, 1 Badnarik.<BR><BR>
2) Bush (but I'd prefer Badnarik)<BR><BR>
3) Florida (Bush), Ohio (Kerry), Pennsylvania (Kerry), Maine (Kerry), Missouri (Bush), Colorado (Bush)<BR><BR>
4) Senate: 53 Republicrats, 46 Democans, 1 Ind. (There are 100 Senators, right?)<BR><BR>
5) Dunno. I don't think I could name a single candidate running for office anywhere in the former 13 colonies. My local race went to the Lieberal candidate, but I voted Conservative. Is Paris Hilton running? How about Michael Moore? Condoleeza Rice? Preston Manning? Smith. Is there a Smith in the running somewhere?
Ben (aka the Tiger in Winter) - September 30, 2004 1:11 AM
I also played with the "Electoral College Calculator" at opinionjournal.com. Saved me the math. :-)
Electoral college:
305-233
President:
Bush
Key States:
Bush - Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, Colorado
Kerry - Florida.
Senate: 52 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 1 Independent.
Non-federal race... h'm.
Robert J. Smith, (D), state representative in the 4th district of NJ is going down, whoever the heck he is.
I usually take XL t-shirts, but can wear L.
Lisa Howard - September 30, 2004 3:54 AM
I'll make this quick then cause I'm on baby duty and must type with one finger: 274 Bush Kerry 264
Bush will win the presidency.
Bush will win Florida, Colorado and Missouri.
Kerry will win Pennsylvania, Ohio and Maine.
For the Senate, I say 50 to 49 in favour of the Republicans.
Jim Jeffords will win his seat (is he running?)
Also Bush will stumble around a lot during the debate and will sound like an ignoramus, but the media (esp. Fox but also CNN et al.) consensus will be that he showed leadership and bravado so he will be declared the winner.
Lisa Howard - September 30, 2004 4:05 AM
Also, there will be some controversy surrounding voting machines.
Alan - September 30, 2004 4:14 AM
I know that California is looking for them.
Kateland - September 30, 2004 7:01 AM
Bush wins
Electoral College: Bush breaks by at least 300
Bush carries Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado
Kerry - Penn and Maine
GOP 51, Dem 48, Ind 1
Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) loses
Alan - September 30, 2004 2:11 PM
It is getting interesting as Ohio has flipped back to Kerry.
Do you guys have to pitch in for a prize for me if I win?
Lisa Howard - September 30, 2004 2:59 PM
I'll send you a pack of 'worker' brand cigarettes from Hungary if you win. Or some pork products if you prefer them.
Alan - September 30, 2004 6:41 PM
Mmmmmm...pork. Don't forget to try out some of the ribtastic recipes discussed here earlier this summer. A paprika rub would be a dandy start.
Wayne - September 30, 2004 7:53 PM
"Rub" or "Rib"?
Alan - September 30, 2004 8:06 PM
You can "rub" a "rib" or any meat by slitting it shallowly all over and then rubbing it with salt and spices. Paprika, which like me is big in Hungary, is
an excellent pre-BBQ rub.
Lisa Howard - October 8, 2004 1:56 PM
Why are we asked to post on the old election pool thread when this is the most recent thread on that topic?
Alan - October 8, 2004 1:59 PM
Ed.: <i>hmm...what?...I seem to have fallen down a few weeks ago and am just getting up now...</i>]<p>This is outraaaaaaageous! Who has been left in charge around here! Can't you see people are confused! Where is Jones? Where is Johnson!
Ben aka the Tiger in Winter - October 14, 2004 2:59 PM
I really, really wish that I could swap Florida and Pennsylvania on my posting. (Which would put Bush at 312, Kerry at 226.)
But I can't. Oh well.
Ben aka the Tiger in Winter - October 14, 2004 3:27 PM
Wait a minute. No deadline had been set. Open-ended. Ok. My new bet is therefore:
Electoral college:
309-229
President:
Bush
Key States:
Bush - Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, one of Maine's districts.
Kerry - Pennsylvania, the rest of Maine.
Senate: 52 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 1 Independent.
Non-federal race... h'm.
Robert J. Smith, (D), state representative in the 4th district of NJ is going down, whoever the heck he is.
Alan - October 14, 2004 5:10 PM
My deadlines are all flexible. I am on vacation anyway so go ahead and push me around if you want.
Hans - October 29, 2004 1:19 PM
Oh Alright! I'll play. The thought of having a prize to match my Bengt Gustafsson card is too tantalizing. Here are my picks:
1) Electoral College - Kerry - 270; Bush - 268
2) President - Kerry
3) Key States - FL - Kerry; PA - Kerry; MO - Bush; OH - Kerry; ME - Kerry; CO - Bush
4) Senate - 50-50
5) Delfino for County Clerk in whatever county Rochester, NY is in
Alan - October 29, 2004 1:23 PM
Attaboy!
Alan - October 31, 2004 3:41 PM
I have to set up a table for the picks so far but the interesting things is that...I am definitely going to win this thing!
Rob MacD - October 31, 2004 11:02 PM
Oh, I'll go too:
Electoral College: 274 Kerry - 264 Bush
President: Kerry
Key States: Kerry - Maine, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio; Bush - Missouri, Colorado
Senate: Republicans 50 - Democrats 49 - Independent 1
Wild Card: In Georgia's Western District, Incumbent District Attorney Ken Mauldin(D) will lose to hard-charging Mo Wiltshire. I'm worried about Wiltshire's young age (35 to Mauldin's 49), but I'm convinced that the people of Western District are not pleased with Mauldin's tenure so far. Sure, he's won 9 of 10 murder cases (losing only to Wiltshire, interestingly) but, as Wiltshire points out, he should be delegating some of those trials to assistants. See, Mauldin's got an inability to delegate. He doesn't trust anyone enough. As a result, cases are beginning to backlog because he feels he needs to prosecute personally. This very concern was a precaustionary warning four years ago when Mauldin won over longtime DA Harry Gordon. As well, the office's budget has seen a sharp increase lately. And why is the personnel turnaround so high in the office these past four years. Is it because Mauldin's so difficult to work for, or because he doesn't trust anyone enough to let them do anything? And don't even get me going on the scandal that was "phonegate".
Yes, the people of the Western District of Georgia, it's time for a change. This election, vote Wiltshire for District Attorney. A t-shirt or a mug or some such thing to a blonde-haired guy in Prince Edward Island Canada may be riding on your decision.