This morning's New York Times poll confirms yesterday's from CNN:
Four weeks from Election Day, the presidential race is again a dead heat, with Mr. Bush having given up the gains he enjoyed for the last month after the Republican convention in New York, the poll found. In both a head-to-head matchup and a three-way race including Ralph Nader, the Republican and Democratic tickets each won the support of 47 percent of registered voters surveyed in the poll.Interesting that the administration is starting to say the unsayables about Iraq early this week, too, and Poland considers a deadline for leaving after all that attention in the debate. Not a shining start for the week for Bush. But it is all about the electoral college and he is waaaay ahead today with PA, FL and OH all on the red wagon...today...and this form of polling includes mucho lag time.
Ominously, however, for Kerry, Maine now supports Kerry.
Comments
Mike - October 5, 2004 1:23 PM
Incredibly odd that Ralph Nader was in HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA yesterday, just one month prior to the election.
Alan - October 5, 2004 1:36 PM
I saw that but I bet there are 1,000 US voters there, many of whom are on the Kery/Nader fence.
Mike - October 5, 2004 2:28 PM
Yup, I'm sure he had them in his sights.
Alan - October 6, 2004 5:41 PM
It was like this yesterday on Oct. 5th:<p><center><img src="http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct05.png"></center><p>
and then...Voom! Just like that the tables are turning again:<p><center><img src="images/2004c/oct06.png"></center><p>The disembodied voice behind it all says:<blockquote class="smalltext">The effect of the first presidential debate is starting to kick in. Kerry is surging and Bush is dropping. Kerry has retaken the lead in all-important Ohio by 49% to 48%, New Mexico by 46% to 43%, and Iowa by 48% to 47%. While all of these are within the margin of error, previous polls had Bush ahead in these states by more than the margin of error. Clearly the forward motion Kerry has been experiencing in the national polls this week is starting to show up in the state polls as well. On the other hand, Bush has taken the lead in Pennsylvania by a margin of 48% to 47%. </blockquote>
Alan - October 7, 2004 7:33 AM
Now look again for 7 October. Kerry has picked up 53 electoral votes in two days going from 200 to 253 with Michigan tied and Florida fading - Another 44 votes up for grabs. If Bush does as well in the next two debates, meaning he sucks, the arse may be truly out of 'er:<p><img src="http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct07.png"><p>Big Badnarik news for the Libertarian set:<blockquote class="smalltext">Spoiler news: No, not Ralph. There is a secret spoiler lurking out there that only political junkies have ever heard of: Michael Badnarik of the Libertarian Party. He is on the ballot in 48 states, vs. about 35 for Nader. Some polls show him pulling in 1% to 3% of the vote. To a much greater extent than Nader, Badnarik is an equal-opportunity spoiler--he pulls at least at much support from Bush as he does from Kerry. His message is balanced budgets, low taxes, and minimal government. Minimal government means turning many government functions, from welfare to social security to national parks over to the private sector. Voters who support a balanced budget, free trade, and abortion on demand, and who oppose high taxes, gun control and laws telling consenting adults what they can do in private but can't stomach voting for a Democrat may go for Badnarik. </blockquote>Is Pajamastan, that hot bed of right-wing libertarians, having that small effect that will crush Dubya and let Kerry in? Wouldn't that be jolly!
Alan - October 7, 2004 8:03 AM
This is an interesting article on the Bush team unravelling internally.
Alan - October 8, 2004 2:09 PM
And lookie lookie - all it took was three days and Kerry is in the lead:<p><img src="http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct08.png"><p>Maybe Bush has learned how to speak in the last week? He could do it. He might be ok tonight.
Alan - October 17, 2004 11:14 AM
And after all three debates it is tied. The court cases are going to be so facinating.
Alan - October 20, 2004 10:58 AM
I am thinking George might actually lose.
Lisa Howard - October 20, 2004 2:23 PM
I bet Bush would win. I hope I lose, because if I lose I win. That is, I'm a Kerry person, but I'm a pessimist. Oh never mind.
Alan - November 1, 2004 12:26 PM
<img src="images/2004c/nov01.png"><p>The arse may be a wee bit out of it for George as the Votemaster says it is going to be 298 to 231 for Kerry come Wednesday morning.
You will note that one image above is a dead-link. The server battle the Votemaster is fighting has taken a toll but I leave it there in honour of what he does. Today's image is gratefully downloaded.