As readers such as Ale Fan and Crispyhead will no doubt know, the Canadian General election was called yesterday. There are four main parties and 308 seats, up from 301 in the last Parliament. At the call of the election the make-up of the national Parliament was as follows:
Liberal: 168Here is a handy chart that shows which party was represented in which province at the time the election was called.
Conservative: 72
Bloc Quebecois: 33
New Democratic Party: 14
Independent: 10
Vacant: 4
So here's the deal. Guess the make-up of the next parliament. None of Adam's database wizardry needed for this one. To keep up on the issues, you can check in on the CBC's election website or the BlogsCanada e-Blog. The prize? I can't give away Bill Root's for everything. I will have to think of something.
Give your best guess for the seats to be won by each of the four major parties as well as any others under the lump "Independent". Make your vote before Friday. I will ask again mid-election in three weeks and then again at the end of the campaign leaving the door open for a few days. If you do not want to guess three times but stick with your first call, fine. If you want to guess three times, you will be averaged for the overall. A prize of some sort will be given for best guess at each stage and best overall.
Now...what do I have for prizes...
Later: Here are some other election poll posts:
Bow. James Bow.
BlogsCanada e-Blog
Comments
Alan - May 24, 2004 7:12 PM
So - to prime the pump - here are my first picks:<blockquote>Lib 134<br>Con 100<br>BQ 55<br>NDP 18<br>Ind 1</blockquote>
David - May 24, 2004 8:30 PM
I'll be hiding in the basement till my birthday -- June 29.
Rusty - May 25, 2004 10:17 AM
libs - 143
cons - 96
ndp - 25
bq - 38
marcia - May 26, 2004 4:09 PM
liberals 131
conservative 100
bquebecois 50
ndp 26
independent 2
Michael X - May 27, 2004 8:40 AM
My predictions based on using the 2004 Canadian Election Forecasting Migration Model:
(Not necessarily my preference)
Conservative votes: 34.2% = 149 seats
Liberal votes: 28.2% = 64 seats
Bloc votes: 10.8% = 56 seats
NDP votes: 24.5% = 38 seats
Other votes: 2.3% = 1 seat
marcia revised - May 27, 2004 2:32 PM
liberals 145
conservatives 89
bquebecois 48
ndp 27
6th Generation Canadian - May 30, 2004 11:26 PM
Gliberal-140
conmen (regressive convertibles+All-lie-ones)-81
Notoriously Decent People-30
Bloqueheads-55
Ind.-1
Groans-1
Alan - June 20, 2004 6:39 PM
I am changing my picks:<p>
Lib 119<br>
Con 109<br>
BQ 55<br>
NDP 28<br>
Ind 1
Douglas - June 25, 2004 3:56 PM
What happens if the Liberals get more seats than the Conservatives, but the Conservatives plus Bloc get more than the Liberals plus NDP?
Alan - June 27, 2004 7:55 PM
The unjournalist Andrew Coyne has a running election predictor going amongst his Tory echo chamber pals. I do like his "crooks, fascists, commies, traitors and freaks" breakdown.
Cormac - June 28, 2004 1:50 PM
June 28th election - seats prediction:
Conservatives 130
Liberal 90
NDP 28
Bloc 60
Alan - June 29, 2004 12:59 PM
Did I win? I did if you do not avaerage. Does anyone care?
marcia - June 29, 2004 9:04 PM
i think you won.......pretty amazing initial picks! way to go al.....send yourself a bill root card!
Alan - June 29, 2004 11:52 PM
Yours have been sent!