In another interesting twist on the election, the latest CPAC SES poll seems to indicate that the wheels may also be coming of the Tory wagon. This poll is from last Friday and shows that, after a week of Tories being a few percent up, they are now back neck and neck with the Grits in the low thirties. Harper as leader has dropped from 26% approval to 22%. As the BQ, Liberals and NDP all move up slightly, it is the drop in the undecided that is critical and may signal those on the fence are dropping down now on its left side.
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Comments
Alan - June 14, 2004 10:56 PM
But then, after the weekend, another bump for the Tories.
Alan - June 17, 2004 2:25 PM
...and after the debates, another.
Alan - June 18, 2004 11:20 AM
...and down he goes again!
Alan - June 18, 2004 3:18 PM
...and the next day down even further. These SES polls are interesting as they are over such a short period of time. Better to catch the mood I would think as we only vote on one day, not over seven as most polls cover. Perhaps Harper will wish that the election was held the day before the debate!
Alan - June 21, 2004 3:09 PM
More swing on Monday.
Alan - June 22, 2004 2:21 PM
OK - he has officially peaked way back on June 10th.
Alan - June 23, 2004 3:23 PM
Everyone stays the same today...
Alan - June 24, 2004 3:16 PM
Harper slips again to 30% nationally.
Alan - June 24, 2004 3:18 PM
Interesting to note that on the 14th SES said that the Tories were 16% ahead of the NDP. Now they are only 9%
Alan - June 24, 2004 3:20 PM
...and on June 8th, the Tories were 19% up on the NDP.
SayNay? - June 24, 2004 6:30 PM
Environics Poll (as quoted from National Post, June 24):
"The Liberals and Stephen Harper's Conservatives each have 33% voter support and four days left to sway voters, according to an Environics Research poll released yesterday. The poll, conducted June 17-22, said the NDP are at 19%. Twenty per cent of the 1,500 people surveyed say they still do not know which party they will vote for on Monday.
With Quebec removed from the equation, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals.
'Outside Quebec, our numbers are 40% Conservative, 35% Liberal, and 20% NDP in decided support,' said Donna Dasko, senior vice-president of Environics. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has 50% support, compared with 25% for the Liberals. The NDP and Conservatives each measure 10% support in the province."
Alan - June 24, 2004 6:52 PM
Note two things. The data is from last week in part. Also, Ontario is being averaged in with the rest of Canada outside Quebec - is the 42% to 30% rate is to be believed, the Tories may get 10 to 20, leaving the Grits almost enough for a majority . All of course will be revealed next week.
Alan - June 25, 2004 2:35 PM
The SES came out early today. I wonder if this is the last as they do not release on weekends and Monday is the vote. In any event, the vote appears to have locked in the last few days:<blockquote>Lib 34%<br>Tory 30%<br>NDP 20%<br>Bloc 12%<br>Green 4%</blockquote>So we have a weekend to think, panic, ignore. I still could go a number of ways but am thinking NDP. Would I vote Tory? Not likely. Liberal. If I lived in a Belleville, maybe, because the Tories have a hope. Green maybe but less likely. <p>Rosie the Clown? Will my hand hover?