Another Poll with 3 Days to the Vote

Here is the regional break down of this morning's Ipsos/Ried poll in the Federal election:

In Ontario, the Liberals attract 38% of the decided vote (down 4 points) and are up 4 points on the Conservatives (34%, up 4 points). The NDP continues to hold steady at 20% of decided voter support (unchanged), and the Green Party trails very distantly with 6% of decided voter support (unchanged).
In Quebec, a 19 point margin separates the Bloc Quebecois (48%, down 5 points) from the Liberals (29%, up 6 points). The Conservatives (9%, up 1 point), the NDP (5%, down 4 points), and the Green Party (5%, up 2 points) register lower on the federal radar screen in this province.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives (44%, up 8 points) are surging and now lead the Liberals (24%, down 8 points) by 20 points. The NDP has rebounded (22%, up 4 points) to earlier levels of support, while the Green Party (8%, unchanged) remains static.
In Alberta, the Conservatives (59%, unchanged) continue to dominate with a 39 point lead over the Liberals (20%, up 3 points). NDP decided vote support sits at 11% (unchanged), as the Green Party trails further behind with 6% of decided vote support (down 1 point).
In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Conservatives (36%, down 1 point) and the Liberals (32%, down 1 point) are running closely, with the NDP (25%, up 8 points) a little further back. The Green Party attracts 5% of the decided vote (down 2 points).
In Atlantic Canada the lead continues to move back and forth, with the Liberals (44%, up 7 points) now leading the NDP (26%, up 11 points) and Conservatives (23%, down 18 points). The Green Party registers with 7% of the decided vote (up 5 points).

Comments? I would think that their last poll showing the Liberals 12% ahead of the Tories in Ontario was a statistical error rather than a trend. Looks like a red sweep in Atlantic Canada which makes sense. Truro will go Tory. I'd say BC Liberal losses with the Quebec Bloc levels mean a Tory minority. Lots of opportunity for three-way squeekers, I'd say, which means an unexpected outcome is quite possible all the way from a strong Tory minority to a strong Liberal one with a big seat range for NDP.

Comments

Alan - June 25, 2004 11:54 AM

Weirder and weirder, as of this morning the National Post now has the Liberals in a slight lead for seats!

SayNay? - June 26, 2004 3:27 PM

Paul Martin is now crying like a baby, begging Liberals to get out the vote: for a Liberal MINORITY government! What does that tell you - their internal polling has them being decimated - I mean "Kim Campbell-like" decimated. It should be a long overdue bloodbath. Monday evening can't come soon enough. And you know what, contrary to the Liberal hacks, the sun WILL still rise Tuesday morning and everyday thereafter.

Alan - June 26, 2004 3:30 PM

You speak foof. What will the Tories do if it was all squandered, their best chance at government, by opening their mouths and speaking their minds.

SayNay? - June 26, 2004 4:19 PM

It is difficult to understand what they have "squandered" if the Cons lose - they've never had anything to "lose" - its the Libs that will have "squandered" everything. Just bringing them down a few pegs is satisfaction enough - hoping to form a Con gov't seems too much to ask for now. Maybe next time, in a few months.

Alan - June 26, 2004 4:39 PM

Nothing to lose! They had a lead nine days ago, they had a moral crusade, they had a ten year division overcome that was supposed to be the answer to all their problems, they had a new leader who had turned out to be a dud. You are right, though, that bringing the Libs down a number of pegs (a medieval beer drinking analogy, by the way) is important - but the Tories, too. The thing this election has pointed out more than anything is the lack of leaders of all stripes. Even Layton, who has done better than expected I'd say, is a bit uncious.

SayNay? - June 27, 2004 12:58 PM

What do say about the Lick's Hamburger Poll:
Cons - 41%
Libs - 25%
NDP - 23%
Other- 11%?
Apparently accurate within 3% points in Ontario in the last 2 Federal Elections. I suppose the Cons just eat more beef?

SayNay? - June 27, 2004 1:01 PM

Anyway, I'm getting my knitting out and reserving my seat beside the guillotine that soon will be set up outside the Langevin Block.

SayNay? - June 27, 2004 1:12 PM

"As The Vengeance descends from her elevation to do it, the tumbrils begin to discharge their loads. The ministers of Sainte Guillotine are robed and ready. Crash!--A head is held up, and the knitting- women who scarcely lifted their eyes to look at it a moment ago when it could think and speak, count One." (Tale of Two Cities, Chapter 45)

Alan - June 27, 2004 2:52 PM

What would make for a bad outcome? For me it would be a strong minority of any kind...not to mention the impossible dream of a Tory majority. Whoever wins they should be forced to explain themselves on the floor of the House. I suppose even a Liberal/NDP coalition would not be as good as Gilles Duceppe being the gatekeeper of governance.