There is much talk amongst these things called blogs about their place. Dave Winer makes an interesting point about their utility being in the narrowness of blogging. Craig points us to some less optimistic opinions which reminded me of my posting five months ago comparing blogs and CB radio. I don't know if I have changed my mind about the heights to which we can expect this format to reach - but confusing the role of blogs with the quality, resources and journalistic standards found in newspapers and other quality professional media with what are at best partially informed personal opinions has certainly inflated the idea of what can be achieved through a digital soapbox [being a two-foot tall block of wood that only places the speaker in a position of audibility to a slightly larger tiny crowd].
That being the case - and somewhat regardless of it - it appears to me that the sun always sets and that this form of discussion, too, will die. Here are some of the factors I think will kill off blogs:
- Spam - sooner or later the Nigerian investment set will realize that stripping out "reply to" buttons rather than email addresses will give them another automated means to spread the word. In addition to this, you are seeing more and more random manual acts of insipid replying such as this. At some point, either the bots or the tangential may overwhelm the reply to buttons and the patience of authors. This would merely be a repetition of what happened to usenet and is happening to email so it should be expected to expand;
- Aggregating reading apps - many readers of many blogs use applications that tell you that your favorites have updated. There may come a point that these apps become the means by which the vast majority of reading is done. This is somewhat anti-thetical to the authors point of view that this-space-and-content-as-my-space-and content - I expect you to take in the entire site as a whole. By decontextualizing my newest comments, a reader is having a different experience than intended by the writer. If I notice much misconstruing of my observations in replies and their linking on other blogs, I may just get turned off writing in this way;
- writers may just become bored - writers of blogs may tend to be optimistic, needy manics of some degree and the new is great fodder for that condition. Some dream that they are participating in an agenda, either politics or technology. If the return on the emotional investment in the dream is not there in the long term, authorship will simply die off; and
- the great catch all - a new unanticipated technology will arise which will draw off activity.
My point? Dunno.
Comments
Shelley - October 20, 2003 1:56 pm
You make some very salient points. Right now, blogs are still very faddish (if that's a word) But I think that like most things that become instantly accessible and manageable for the masses, it will peak, and eventually, the wheat will be seperated from the chaff. Like Web sites and e-newsletters - there was originally a tremendous glut, as everyone and their uncle had to have one. That's levelled off somewhat, but there are still solid, useable ones out there.
The spam issue is definitely a concern - I see more and more bloggers disabling their comments because of it. And the out-of-context posts thing will mostly affect those who use their blogs as a running commentary, not those whose entries can mostly stand alone.
Ok, enough, before my comment turns into a blog entry of its own. <g>
Steven Garrity - October 20, 2003 2:13 pm
All worthy points - though I think prophesizing the death of weblogs is now as much of a fad as weblogs themselves.
humblebub - October 20, 2003 3:36 pm
http://humblebub.islandmusings.net/comments.php?id=P913_0_1_0 is the correct link (looks like you switched case :))
Alan - October 20, 2003 4:21 pm
I have no idea why that "P" defaults back to the small case but it does everytime. I just tried to redo that link three different ways. All I do is copy and paste around here, Craig.
I suppose that is right enough, Steven, but - whether a fad or not - the volume written about the messianic nature of these things in itself would require a counter reformation. I will be interested to see where the point of balance rests given the continuing effective use of 1994ish BBs in some unlikely places.
<i>Later</i>: it is also more of my interest is how these things occur than that they do - McLuhanesque unintended consequences.
Alan - October 20, 2003 6:57 pm
On the idea of fad, Dave Winer (two references in one thread) states that <a href="<http://davenet.userland.com/#someTime">he has been writing on the web since 1994 and that some people call this [presumably the web thang] a fad</a>. I wouldn't call web writing a fad or thing that it will pass - it is too free, in both senses, for that. It is the present tool, the blog, that may go or morph.
Arthur - October 20, 2003 8:19 pm
To be honest, I keep thinking of blogging as pyramid scheme for the most hits.
Arthur - October 20, 2003 8:20 pm
as pyramid scheme for the most hits.
And yes, you can quote me on that <g>
Alan - October 20, 2003 8:40 pm
Well, you know that is a bit of it, isn't it. The stats are so seductive. I was in a meeting and told a number about the stats of a fairly big website and realize - I am bigger than that - as I average over a million visits a year now. [Isn't that odd in itself - what do you see in me?] What I like about this writing is the writing and the chit-chatery. More like Ham radio than CB as there is a lot of tech talk and QSL-like reciprocity. I recall that there were "nets" as well of like minded folk who would get together on a topic on a regular basis - South Pacific amateur radio operators who wanted to talk stamps will meet at 1800 GMT somewhere on the 49 metre band.
Arthur - October 20, 2003 9:48 pm
(on stats and hits) Well, you know that is a bit of it, isn't it.
In a way it is, yes, but I don't link to you to get more hits :-). I think your analogy comparing blogging with HAM is pretty good, but that's it. Over time, Humans have invented plenty of ways to communicate: blogging is just one of them. Two way communication? Try the phone. Or better yet, try a date :-)
Wayne - October 21, 2003 7:22 am
Ha!! Try my ex!!! :-(
Alan - October 21, 2003 8:43 am
The other good thing is the record - or bad if you have regrets - again, perhaps Wayne & ex would not made the best archives;-)
Alan - October 21, 2003 8:58 am
Craig - who I think I can link to without the curse of the upper case "P" - agrees with my observation about aggregators. Could it be that syndication's downfall will be that it is too efficient, that it overwhelms by removing the regulating level of the ability to take in? I say this without being a user so tell me if I am wrong.
Arthur - October 21, 2003 6:53 pm
Ha!! Try my ex!!! :-(
ex? But y? :-)
Arthur - October 21, 2003 7:00 pm
Could it be that syndication's downfall will be that it is too efficient, that it overwhelms by removing the regulating level of the ability to take in?
Well, syndication is the other part of blogging I'm not convinced of: I used a reader a couple of months ago, and I felt I was basically reading 'headlines' from blogs. Now: why would a newsaggregrator be a replacement of the webbrowser? Just reading headlines, doesn't make one informed (this could be a slogan for the Globe and Mail).
Alan - October 22, 2003 1:06 pm
Another thing would be the replacement of every f*#*$ng word in the language with some derivation of the poxy word "blog" - as in this posting.
Alan - October 24, 2003 1:58 pm
Here is a Wired article on the blog spam thang - care of Rob "I go easy with the graphs on my blog" Paterson.
Alan - October 30, 2003 3:32 pm
I don't think anything can keep me in touch with 600 separate people every 30 minutes and have a hope of logically taking it in.
Alan - November 3, 2003 10:53 pm
An Oct. 24 column on the BBC web on blog spam. 20 to 30 a day might make me turn off the comments.
Alan - November 3, 2003 10:58 pm
...and the Movable Type Lords consider the alternatives.
Alan - November 5, 2003 3:37 pm
Another problem is sheer volume which makes Seb's ideas interesting - we cannot be expected to move through the whole of the web so we must create our own zones. It also screams out for a central place like my tree taxonomic based on keyword RSS indexing rather than website or author.
Alan - November 17, 2003 1:31 pm
Doc has perhaps another way of putting it all this morning. I do not know how he can say blogs are not a medium. I think he does not understand the scope of the word. He is right in saying that this is what we all thought the web would be ten years ago. The key has been the useful CMS.
Dave - November 17, 2003 5:29 pm
Doc compounds his lack of appreciation of McLuhan here again today:<blockquote class="smalltext">First, there's a critical distinction, which I make elsewhere, between a medium and a place. One implies a one-way sending of messages. The other implies a location where conversations (among many other things) can happen. Further explanation risks getting into a boring digression into cognitive linguistics. That last link does a good a job as any of explaining the distinction.</blockquote>No biggie but it illustrates what qualifies as guru. If a lighbulb is a medium surely to f#^%#$ a blog is.
Ken - November 18, 2003 8:26 pm
As email dies the death of a thousand spams I have begun using one on one blogs behind a password protected web page instead, for conversations with my two main people I correspond with. I will soon be adding a third, I was thinking this may be a new form. It's like a private blog and it's spam free.
Password protected web pages also give access to many of my personal files like music, movies, and software. Eat that RIAA.
It's kind of like BBS's used to be.
Alan - November 18, 2003 11:08 pm
Very interesting. I have a intranet behind passwords that could also provide that sort of closed conversation but I am not yet anywhere near being driven there. Like you, email has lost most of its use.
Alan - December 18, 2003 12:24 pm
Via Dave3, <i>The Guardian</i> has an excellent article on the limits and potential of blog utility - if a bit self serving as it is by a "blog consultant". Yikes.
Maggie - December 19, 2003 11:47 am
Al,
What's your address? I want to send you guys a Christmas card and updated cutie photo of my child.
E-mail me.
Alan - December 19, 2003 12:05 pm
Oh - let me just post that here on my blog along with some bank account info...
Alan - December 19, 2003 5:23 pm
And then more "blog consultants" jump in and start yakking among themselves.